MLB free picks and best bets for July 28th

Yankees pitcher Jameson Taillon makes the Yankees an MLB best bet
Jameson Taillon (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)

Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet. 

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MLB Best Bets for July 28th

MLB Best Bets

With the Royals trading Andrew Benintendi, the Yankees lineup gets better while the Royals gets worse. Our model has the Yankees as 2.30 run favorites, which makes the Yankees -1.5 seem like a strong bet if Jameson Taillon can prevent a blow-up outing. 

Similarly, our model has the Blue Jays favored by 2.16 runs and the Dodgers by 2.02 runs. Those are both a little tight on the -1.5 runline, but the odds are over +200 on the moneyline for both, so it makes those poor bets unless they were part of a small bet multi-team parlay. 

On the other end of the spectrum, our model sees the Rangers as 0.48 run favorites over Shohei Ohtani and the Angels because that Angels lineup is so decimated. You can run the risk and take Texas on the ML or you can just take the runs in what is still a solid bet. 

Lastly, our model has this Cubs/Giants game at 7.18 total runs. It’s a little tight to bet the under on eight runs, but the Giants just looked so poor on offense on their road trip and Justin Steele has been pretty solid this year. These teams have combined to score 7.8 runs per game over their last 10 and Chicago is 2-5-3 on the under over that span, so if San Francisco’s offense is still struggling, the under could hit tonight but this is a risky one. 

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