Tuesday’s 2022 French Open quarter-final action concludes with an epic showdown between future Hall of Famers Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.
We’d normally see these two superstars face off in a Grand Slam final, but Nadal comes into this match ranked 5th in the world after a few injury-plagued seasons. However, the Spaniard is 23-3 in 2022 and had not dropped a set in the 2022 French Open until his five-set victory over 9th-ranked Felix Auger-Aliassime in the 4th round.
Djokovic, who was forced to withdraw from the Australian Open after not complying with tournament COVID policies, is 12-4 during the 2022 season and has not lost a set so far in the tournament, including a dominant performance against 15th-seeded Diego Schwartzman in the 4th round.
This will be the 59th meeting between these two stars, more than any other rivalry in tennis history. While Djokovic does lead the series 30-28, Nadal is 7-2 in matches played at the French Open and is 19-8 in all matches the pair have played on clay courts.
Yet, as I touched on earlier, Djokovic is coming into this match in top form. He has yet to drop a set in any of his warm-up clay-court tournaments and is serving tremendously, landing 71% of his first serves and recording 31 aces to just seven aces for Nadal in the tournament.
That form will be put to the test against the man who has won 13 French Open singles titles, seven more than the player with the second-most titles. In fact, Nadal is a staggering 105-3 in his career at the French Open. However, he has lost all three previous clay-court matches where Djokovic comes in as the favorite.
Can the 35-year-old Nadal reverse that recent performance and reclaim his previous superiority?
How to Watch
- Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Channel: Tennis Channel, Peacock app, fuboTV
Latest Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Djokovic (-245), Nadal (+195)
- Total Games: Over 37.5 games (-120), Under 37.5 games (-105)
- Game Spread: Djokovic -5.5 (+110), Nadal +5.5 (-130)
- Alternate Game Spread: Djokovic -4.5 (-120)
- I think a moneyline bet on Nadal (+195) is a standard one unit bet I’d play. It’s just too hard to bet against the greatest clay-court player we’ve likely ever seen, even with how well Djokovic is playing. When you can get Nadal at almost +200, I think you have to take a shot but just know that, as the odds suggest, this is a risky play so don’t throw tons of money down on it.
- As a result, I think the safer bet is taking the over on 38.5 total games (+100). I think this match will go at least four sets. If it does, and the average performance in each set is a 6-3 victory, that gives us 36 total games. That means that, if the match is as highly contested as I believe it will be and we get some 7-5 sets or tiebreakers, then even if this match only goes four sets, we should hit the over. If this turns into another epic five-set showdown between these two, we can enjoy it with some extra money in the bank.