Following three recent New York City mayor’s race polls showing a tightening race, a new Emerson College/PIX11/THE HILL poll out Thursday tells a much different story about the contest.
Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani hits nearly 50% support and has a 25-point lead over independent former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, according to the Emerson poll. This significantly differs from three other prestigious polls — from Suffolk, Quinnipiac, and Marist Universities released between Oct. 26-28 — which show Cuomo narrowing the gap with Mamdani, closing to within 10 points of the frontrunner in two of the polls.
The Emerson poll of 640 very likely voters and those who have already voted, conducted between Oct. 25-27, is the first major independent poll to show Mamdani at 49.6%. Throughout the general election, the Democratic nominee and Queens Assembly member has been the frontrunner, but with a plurality rather than a majority, in the three-person contest between him, Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
The new Emerson survey took place during the start of early voting, and of 243 participants who said they had early voted, 58% said they chose Mamdani, while 25% opted for Cuomo. Mamdani holds a slimmer 19% edge among survey respondents who said they had yet to vote.
Nonetheless, Mamdani, during an unrelated Thursday news conference in Brooklyn, said that amid the wide range of polls, he is staying focused on turning out voters.
“The best thing to do right now is canvass, to get out there and actually make the case to New Yorkers,” he said. “Because polls give us a snapshot in time. It’s great when there’s a good one. We look past it when there’s a bad one. But really, all they are are a prediction; it’s up to us to actually win this race.”
Overall, Cuomo had 25% support in the new Emerson poll, down three points from the last survey taken in September, when he had 28%. That snapshot of the race was taken a couple of weeks before Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the race.
Thursday’s results also have Republican Curtis Sliwa close behind Cuomo, with 21%; Sliwa gained 11 points since September. Five percent are undecided or other. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, stated that Mamdani has widened his lead “across key demographics.” He said Mamdani has boosted his support among Black voters from 50% to 71%, while Cuomo lost 10 points with the same group.
“Mamdani continues to have a base of young voters; 69% of voters under 50 support him, whereas 37% of voters over 50 support Mamdani, while 31% support Cuomo and 28% Silwa,” Kimball said.
Responding to the Emerson poll, Cuomo, during his own Thursday campaign event in Harlem pointed to the large volume of older voters turning out to cast early ballots, as evidenced in the Quinnipiac and Suffolk University polls released this week.
“The turnout in early voting is setting an all time record,” Cuomo told reporters. “They have never seen this volume of turnout, which is great, which is great, and it’s all across the city. And I think the polls have no idea what they’re talking about, because they have never seen this kind of turnout before.”
In terms of voter favorability, the Emerson poll found that 52% of respondents viewed Mamdani favorably, versus 41% who viewed him unfavorably. Thirty-five percent of voters have a favorable stance towards Cuomo, while 58% do not.
Sliwa is seen favorably by 21% of those surveyed, and unfavorably by 55%.
A Sliwa spokesperson did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
