Defending men’s champion Novak Djokovic faces a battle with history if he is to win a record-extending 25th grand slam title at the 2024 US Open in Queens — the main draw of the competition beginning on Monday.
No men’s player has retained the US Open since Roger Federer beat Andy Murray in straight sets in 2008, with Djokovic losing in the final on the previous two occasions that he entered the tournament as defending champion.
The US Open has proved by far the most diverse of all men’s grand slams in recent year, with 10 different players winning the tournament since 2008. In comparison, there have been just five different winners in each of the other three grand slams — the Australian Open, Wimbledon, and French Open — in the same time frame.
Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev, and Juan Martin Del Potro all claimed their first and only grand slam title at Flushing Meadows, while Andy Murray and Carlos Alcaraz also claimed their first career grand slam title at the US Open.
That statistical quirk suggests the possibility of a first-time major winner at this year’s event, with 2020 finalist Alexander Zverev arguably the most likely to do so. Zverev has enjoyed a decent 2024, reaching the Australian Open semifinal and French Open final, while he crucially avoids playing
Alcaraz, Djokovic, or Jannik Sinner until the semifinals.
In all likelihood, however, the US Open will come down to another battle between Alcaraz and Djokovic. Alcaraz comes into this tournament on the back of successive grand slam victories at the French Open and Wimbledon, including a demolition of Djokovic in the Wimbledon final.
Djokovic, on the other hand, exacted some revenge over the young Spaniard with a win in the Olympic gold-medal match earlier in August.
The pair will meet in the final if they overcome all obstacles in their path and it would not be the biggest surprise if Djokovic suffered a third US Open final defeat as defending champion. It all depends on how Alcaraz can recover from a grueling few months, indicated by his round-of-32 defeat against Gael Monfils in Cincinnati earlier this month.
The women’s draw has arguably been just as unpredictable as the men’s in recent years, with no player winning back-to-back titles since Serena Williams in 2014. In the intervening years, Flavia Pennetta, Sloane Stevens, Bianca Andreescu, Emma Raducanu, and Coco Gauff have all won their
first and only grand slam at Flushing Meadows, while Naomi Osaka won her first career title in 2018.
World No. 1 and 2022 champion Iga Swiatek is one of the obvious favorites to win the 2024 US Open, but Swiatek has struggled outside of clay competitions over the past 12 months, falling in the fourth round of last year’s US Open and the third round of both the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year.
Back-to-back Australian Open champion and 2023 US Open runner-up Aryna Sabalenka will fancy her chances of winning a first US Open title this year, especially after winning in Cincinnati earlier in August. However, she faces a difficult route to the final.
Assuming all seeds win their matches, Sabalenka faces a quarterfinal battle with Olympic gold medalist and 2024 Australian Open finalist Zheng Qinwen before a semifinal date with either Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejčíková or Gauff, who beat Sabalenka in three sets in last year’s US
Open final.
Former champions Osaka and Andreescu have been handed wildcards for this year’s event but face difficult first-round matches against Jelena Ostapenko and Jasmine Paolini respectively.
Logic dictates that the final should be contested by Swiatek and Sabalenka, but logic does appear to go out the window in both the men’s and women’s draw at this most perplexing of grand slam events.
But Sabalenka appears to be the smartest choice in the women’s field and could very easily win her first US Open title early next month.
