After clinching a playoff birth, the Buffalo Bills will look to lock up the AFC East and keep their hold on the top spot in the AFC when they travel to Chicago to take on the Bears.

Buffalo Bills (11-3) @ Chicago Bears (3-11)

Game Details:

Location: Soldier Field in Chicago, IL
Time: Saturday, December 24th at 1:05 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS

Betting Stats:

SPREAD: BUF -8
OVER/UNDER: 39.5
MONEYLINE: BUF (-385), CHI (+300)

Top Matchups/Storylines:

How will both teams handle the weather?

We covered this same question last week when it seemed like the Bills-Dolphins game was going to be shrouded in snow. Then for three quarters, it was nothing but cold weather until the flurries started during the Buffalo comeback in the fourth quarter.

As of this writing, Chicago is supposed to be hit with a huge storm on Friday, which is why the Bills are flying in on Thursday night. While the snow should stop by Saturday, the field may still be wet or sloppy, and the temperatures during the game could be as cold as zero degrees. Yes, zero.

While that will obviously impact the performance of the players, if there is no snow on the field and the winds are calm, there should be no impact on the passing game, which would be crucial for Buffalo.

Can the Bills stop the run…again?

We’ve asked this question often during the year, and the Bills have responded by being up to the task, but they were absolutely destroyed on the ground last week. In fact, you could make a strong case that, had Miami simply kept running Raheem Mostert, they would have won the game.

Mostert was dragging Bills defenders and running through arm tackles all game, and then Salvon Ahmed did the same when he came in. The Dolphins ran for 188 yards rushing in the game and completely exposed Buffalo’s poor tackling, which has been an issue all season.

That could be an issue again this weekend against Justin Fields, David Montgomery, and Khalil Herbert. While Fields is the biggest name of the three, the two running backs have combined for 1,337 yards on 4.8 yards per rush this season while chipping in nine touchdowns. They can absolutely do damage against this Buffalo defense if the poor tackling and angles continue.

On the season, the Bills have only allowed five teams to rush for more than 100 yards, which is why they had ranked well as a run defense headed into the Miami game. However, every team that rushed for over 100 yards destroyed them, including the Dolphins, the Ravens, who rushed for 162 and two touchdowns, the Jets, who ran for 174 yards and a touchdown, and the Packers, who ran for 208 yards and a touchdown.

Another concern for the Bills could be that Ed Oliver popped up on the injury report with a calf injury, and didn’t practice on Wednesday. Fellow defensive tackle Jordan Phillips was able to get in two limited practices after missing last week’s game, so the Bills could have him back, but losing Oliver for even a week would be a significant loss.

How will Buffalo handle Justin Fields?

Facing a rushing quarterback is nothing new for Buffalo. They go up against one every day in practice and have had multiple crucial showdowns against Lamar Jackson over the last few years. However, they will need to put all of those lessons to good use on Saturday when they face Justin Fields.

The second-year quarterback has rushed for 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns in 13 games this season, making him only the third quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards, along with Jackson and Michael Vick. Fields has also improved his passing this year, completing 62% of his passes and throwing 15 touchdowns; although he does have 10 interceptions.

If the Buffalo defense is able to maintain containment and keep Fields in the pocket, they may force him into some bad throws since he’s without his top wide receiver after Darnell Mooney with on the Injured Reserve a few weeks ago.

When the Bills faced Lamar Jackson and the Ravens back in 2019, the year Jackson won NFL MVP, they were able to hold him to 40 rushing yards on 11 carries. The Bills have faced him twice since then, winning both games, including a 2021 playoff game where they held Jackson to 34 yards on nine carries.

So the blueprint is there for Leslie Frazier to get his defense ready to take on Fields, but can they execute?

How will the Bills reshuffle their offensive line?

With center Mitch Morse already ruled out for Saturday’s game with a concussion, the team will have to shuffle the interior of their offensive line. With Ryan Bates back from injured, the team could leave him at his usual right guard spot and inset Greg Van Roten into the starting lineup, or they could play Bates at center, where he has started in seasons past, and insert Ike Boettger into the right guard spot now that he is off the injured reserve.

While the latter is likely the move that the team would prefer long-term, and certainly the move the fans would like to see, we have no idea how large a workload Boettger is ready to handle – if any – since he was just activated on Monday.

Whatever the combination is that the Bills use, it will be vital to establish some consistency against a Bears defense that traded away its two best players mid-season in Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. When the Bills have gone to their backup linemen this season, the protection has fallen apart and Josh Allen abandons the pocket or forces throws before receivers are open.

As a result, the Bills can ill afford for Morse to be out for multiple weeks, but if he is, they need to identify a better plan to fill his void.

Is there a changing of the guard at CB2 for Buffalo?

In recent weeks, the Bills have been playing musical chairs at their cornerback spot opposite Tre’Davious White.

Three weeks ago, Xavier Rhodes played the majority of snaps, while first-round pick Kaiir Elam was inactive. Two weeks ago, it was Dane Jackson playing all 74 snaps for the Buffalo defense against the Jets while Rhodes was inactive, and then last week Elam and Jackson rotated defensive series’ against the Dolphins.

While Jackson has struggled this year, Elam really answered the call against Miami. He was targeted four times but only gave up two completions (both to Tyreek Hill) for a combined 11 yards. He allowed Hill to gain -2 yards after the catch, which is impressive given Hill is nicknamed The Cheetah for his quickness.

In fact, as Greg Vorse at Cover1 pointed out, Elam has been superior to Jackson in certain elements this season.

Kaiir Elam in 2022 –
▪️37 Targets / 27 Receptions (73%)
▪️278 Yards / 99 YAC
▪️1 TD / 2 Penalties
▪️6 Missed Tackles (14%)
▪️2 INTs / 1 PBU
Dane Jackson –
▪️72 Targets / 44 Receptions (61%)
▪️528 Yards / 101 YAC
▪️3 TDs / 5 Penalties
▪️11 Missed Tackles (17%)
▪️2 INTs / 9 PBUs
— Air Raid | Buffalo (@TheBillsGuys) December 22, 2022

A 60% completion rate against is around league average so Jackson hasn’t been terrible in that regard, but he’s given up the bigger plays and has missed far more tackles. Elam also plays a more physical style of cornerback and makes more plays on the ball, hence the same amount of interceptions in far fewer snaps.

Given that the Bills spent a first-round pick on Elam, it’s time to see if he can be the starter long-term opposite Tre White.