The New York Jets were gearing up for a top free agent to make a visit to their facility Monday afternoon but things have changed in the last 24 hours.
Just a day before Odell Beckham Jr. was scheduled to visit with Gang Green, the former Super Bowl-winning receiver signed a one-year, $18 million deal with the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson. The news sent shockwaves throughout the league Sunday afternoon – OBJ hasn’t played in an NFL game in over a full year and now carries a dead cap of over $15 million.
There wasn’t a guarantee that OBJ would actually sign with the Jets on Monday. Despite the team’s confidence in a deal being worked out, there were five key factors that ultimately forced New York’s hand.
And it’s those same reasons why no one should be concerned
1. How healthy is Odell Beckham Jr. in reality?
The last time Beckham played in an NFL game, he was in line to win MVP of Super Bowl LVI. That was before the former Pro Bowl receiver tore his ACL though. Since then though, the former Giant, Ram, and Brown has had a very long recovery process. While the standard recovery of an injury that OBJ suffered is around two full years to being back at 100% (according to the Mayo Sports Medicine Research Center), the Jets and the rest of the league for that matter have been trying to gauge where the receiver was at in the process.
A $15 million contract is a pretty hefty price if Beckham Jr. can’t play the full season and was going to be too much of a gamble for most teams – let alone the New York Jets.
2. A lesser role in the offense meant fewer chances for Beckham Jr.
With Garrett Wilson coming off one of the best seasons as a rookie receiver in franchise history, and Allen Lazard already locked into a multi-year deal, there wasn’t going to be a ton of snaps that Odell will be or should be the top receiving target going into 2023. While OBJ as a third option was a tantalizing prospect, the idea of a top second-year receiver losing targets was not going to be worth the addition.
Baltimore signed Beckham Jr. with the thought that he could be the top receiving target for Lamar Jackson – he was never going to be that with the New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers.
3. Was a third wide receiver worth the media attention/money that could go to other valuable positions?
There are few receivers in the NFL that carry the kind of paparazzi and glamor that Odell brings to any organization he joins. Would the Jets have liked having a third receiver bring more attention than their top two? By all accounts, Beckham’s attitude has been far better in recent years and he’s been a very good locker-room presence.
But what if the Jets started out their 2023 season slowly? Would people in Odell’s camp have been silent if they feel he’s not being used right?
These are all questions the Jets had to answer for themselves. They may just think that using a player like Mecole Hardman would be a better fit in the current locker room than someone as polarizing as Odell.
In the end, the best deal is sometimes the one that isn’t made. Several teams have learned that in recent years and this might be the Jets’ ultimate lesson.
4. How would have the relationship between OBJ and Aaron Rodgers worked?
There’s no guarantee a top receiver and future Hall-of-Fame quarterback would be an instant fit right away. There are plenty of examples in history that show this. Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens were incredible together for a year and a half but neither could get over the other’s ego. Even Tom Brady and Randy Moss were broken up after just two years of working together.
While Odell was not going to be the same type of dependable receiver that he was when he was younger, his relationship with Rodgers would have been a key storyline going into the 2023 season. Garrett Wilson will be expected to lead the team in targets again this season but if Odell and Rodgers started bickering, how long would it take until that seeps into the rest of the roster?
The relationship between quarterback and receiver is the lifeblood of a passing game. If Rodgers and OBJ couldn’t find a way to work together along with the other receivers on the offense, the 2023 season would’ve been even more of a fiasco for the Jets than last year.
5. Just how much was New York willing to spend on a third wide receiver?
This was the ultimate piece that decided whether Beckham became a member of the Jets or not. Originally there were several reports over the last few weeks saying that Beckham Jr. wanted a contract in the $15-20 million range. While the Pro Bowl wide receiver has refuted those claims in the past, the kind of contract that was given to him on Sunday shows that there was some truth to the initial reports.
And with that being the case, the Jets were never going to come to terms with the receiver for that high a price. A $15 million dead cap hit meant that if Beckham were to walk in free agency next season, he would hurt the Jets’ chances in 2024 if Rodgers stayed another year or if they felt they were ready to move forward with a different quarterback.
With Beckham’s high cap number, the Jets were never going to get this deal done.
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