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Mets look to rebound against Phillies: Preview, predictions for crucial NL East series

Brett Baty Mets Lindor
New York Mets’ Francisco Lindor, back to camera, celebrates with Brett Baty, who hit a two-run home run against the Atlanta Braves during the second inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2022, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Hakim Wright Sr.)

After losing three of four to the Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets head to Philadelphia this weekend for a crucial NL East series.  

Even though the Mets have a 10-game lead over the Phillies and took two of three from them last weekend, New York now holds only a 3.5 game lead over the Braves. The Braves will have a tough weekend series against the Houston Astros, so a good showing against the Phillies could help the Mets give themselves a little bit more breathing room in the NL East race. 

However, New York will have to do it without either of their top two arms on the hill, which could make this series quite a challenge. Below, we’ll walk you through what to expect from each game, along with a prediction of who will come out on top. 

 

Recent Team Stats

  • Last 10: PHI is 6-4 in their last 10 games. NYM is 6-4 in their last 10 games.
  • Last 10 – Score: PHI averaged 3.8 runs scored in their last 10 games. NYM averaged 4.1 runs scored.
  • Last 10 – Runs Allowed: PHI allowed 2.4 runs on average in their last 10 games. NYM allowed 3.5 runs. 
  • Last 14 – Team ERA: NYM allowed a 3.63 ERA in their last 10 games. PHI allowed a 2.53 ERA
  • Last 14 – Team Batting Average: NYM hitting .262 in their last 10 games. PHI hitting .276
  • Last 14 – Team OPS: NYM has a .729 OPS in their last 10 games. PHI has an .811 OPS
  • Last 14 – Hitting Strikeout Rate: NYM hitters strike out 21.1% in their last 10 games. PHI strikes out 22.8%

You can see from above how hot the Phillies have been of late. We know the Phillies can be a dangerous offense when their big bats like Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto get hot, but the pitching has really stepped it up over the last few weeks, which could make this an even tougher series. 

Friday, August 19th, 7:05 PM

  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola (8-9, 3.07 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 9.73 K/9)
  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt (10-7, 3.27 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.93 K/9)

 

This is going to be a tough one for the Mets right out of the gate. Chris Bassitt has been good, but Aaron Nola has been on another level. He’s worked out his command issues, gotten his WHIP down, and just been rock solid for the Phillies basically all year long. Bassitt can keep this close, but it’s hard to go against Nola right now. 

Prediction: PHI Wins 4-3

 

Saturday, August 20th, 1:05 PM

Game 1

Odds not yet published

  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Trevor Williams (2-4, 4.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.75 K/9)
  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler (11-6, 2.92 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.63 K/9) 

This is likely an open-and-shut case for the Phillies. Trevor Williams should not be in an MLB starting rotation and shows how thin the Mets are with Tylor Megill and Carlos Carrasco hurt. Wheeler is a Cy Young contender, and it would be a shock to see the Mets pull this one out given the pitching matchup. 

Prediction: PHI wins 7-2

 

Saturday, August 20th, 7:15 PM

Game 2

Odds not yet published

  • NYM Starting Pitcher: David Peterson (5-2, 3.17 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.52 K/9)
  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Bailey Falter (0-2, 4.83 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 9.66 K/9) 

The Mets can get on the board here in the battle of young lefties who are not full-time members of the rotation. David Peterson has delivered every time the Mets have called on him, and I would expect nothing less here. The Mets will know they need this game, so I expect them to come to make a statement. 

Prediction: NYM wins 6-3

 

Sunday, August 21st, 1:35 PM

Odds not yet published

  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Taijuan Walker (10-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.81 K/9)
  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Kyle Gibson (8-5, 4.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.19 K/9) 

I’m not entirely sure how healthy Taijuan Walker is, which makes me a little nervous here. Especially a day after a doubleheader, where the Mets bullpen will likely have been taxed quite a bit. The Mets will really need Walker to go six innings here, so you have to hope they are throwing him out there because they know he’s healthy enough to do so. Regardless, I think we’ll see a fair amount of offense here. 

Prediction: NYM Wins 7-5

For more Mets coverage like this series preview, visit amNY Sports

Former Mets pitcher Zack Wheeler
Philadelphia starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch during the fifth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

 

 

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