The Buffalo Bills earned an impressive comeback victory over the Ravens on Sunday, using a game-winning field goal to win 23-20. Now they travel back home to try to avenge last season’s Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) @ Buffalo Bills (3-1)

Game Details:

Location: Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, NY
Time: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS

Betting Stats:

SPREAD: BUF -14.5
OVER/UNDER: 46.5

Top Matchups/Storylines:

How Will Injuries Impact the Bills Receiving Corps?

Injuries have been the big story for the Buffalo Bills this season and that should continue this Sunday. Wide receiver Jake Kumerow is set to miss another contest, and the Bills lost Jamison Crowder potentially for the year with a fractured ankle. But the big surprise was that tight end Dawson Knox was also ruled out for this Sunday’s showdown after not practicing all week.

The immediate consequence of Knox being out is likely that Quentin Morris will start at tight end on Sunday. However, we should also see more receiving work for hybrid back Reggie Gilliam, who primarily operates as a fullback, but was a tight end in college at Toledo. The Bills used Gilliam more in the receiving game against the Dolphins, so that will likely continue this week.

The receivers’ room is a bit more complicated.

Many people assumed the Bills would sign a wide receiver this week, but they actually lost another one when Tavon Austin asked to be released from the practice squad due to lack of opportunity. They replaced him on the practice squad with Jaquarii Robinson, but have made no active roster moves.

The implication of that is three-fold. One is that the Bills feel good about the health of Gabe Davis, who got his first full practices after suffering an ankle injury a couple of weeks ago. It also tells us that the Bills feel comfortable with Khalil Shakir seeing additional reps, but perhaps more importantly, it tell us that the team feels good about Isaiah McKenzie’s recovery.

McKenzie shed his non-contact jersey on Friday and got in another limited practice, which means he seems to be progressing in his path through the concussion protocol. Two straight limited practices likely means McKenzie will be active and share slot receiver duties with Shakir, with Davis and Stefon Diggs starting on the outside. That would be a pretty normal receiving corps for the Bills, which is good news with Knox out.

The final receiver spot on Sunday will likely be taken by a practice squad elevation from either Isaiah Hodgins or Tanner Gentry, but that will be strictly a depth move.

The Steelers’ secondary will be relatively healthy with only cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon out. As a unit, Pittsburgh has been mediocre this year, allowing the 21st-most passing yards per game, 16th-most yards per completion, and 24th-most passing TDs. However, they have intercepted seven passes in four games, so they will be aggressive in trying to make Josh Allen pay for his mistakes if he gets sloppy early, like he did against Baltimore.

How will Kenny Pickett handle this Bills defense?

The big story on the Pittsburgh side of the ball is that Kenny Pickett will be making his first NFL start. The rookie out of the University of Pittsburgh saw his first action last week in relief of Mitchell Trubisky, and it was a mixed bag against the Jets. Pickett rushed for two touchdowns and completed 10-of-13 passes, but he also threw three interceptions, even though none of them were rated by Pro Football Focus as a turnover-worthy pass.

The competition level is likely to be greater on Sunday against a Bills defense that should welcome back Ed Oliver, but will again be without Jordan Poyer, who will be out Sunday with a rib injury. Kenny Pickett has shown a desire to push the ball down the field more, and the safety duo of Jaquan Johnson and Damar Hamlin made a crucial mistake in the 4th-quarter against the Dolphins, allowing Miami to complete a 45-yard pass on 3rd-and-22 to set up the go-ahead touchdown.

Without Poyer’s leadership and instinct in the secondary, Pickett could exploit some communication issues if he is willing to take big chances.

However, this Bills pass defense has been tremendous all season, even with the injuries. They’ve allowed only three touchdowns, have also picked off seven passes, and rank 4th in yards per completion and 1st in yards allowed per game, so the sledding will be tough for the rookie.

It’s likely that the Steelers will to try make life easier for their rookie by using misdirection, RPOs, and zone-read plays often against a Bills defensive line that has a major advantage against the Steelers’ offensive line. Since Pickett can be an asset in the running game, the Bills will need to account for him, but they just did a solid job against Lamar Jackson on Sunday, so they will likely come in prepared.

Defenses usually blitz rookie quarterbacks to create confusion, but Buffalo has only blitzed 8% of their plays this season, which is last in the NFL by a lot. While they will likely use some blitzes, except more pre-snap movement to try and confuse Pickett.

Of course, all of that could change if Tremaine Edmunds isn’t able to play. Buffalo’s starting middle linebacker hasn’t practiced all week, and while Sean McDermott wouldn’t rule him out on Friday when he ruled out Poyer and Dawson Knox, Edmunds faces an uphill battle to play. He would likely be replaced by third-round rookie Terrell Bernard, who the Bills may look to simplify things for.

Can the Bills get their non-Josh Allen running game going?

A big talking point for me all season has been the Bills’ struggles to run the ball. Through the first four games of the season, Josh Allen has been the team’s leading rusher on three separate occasions. That’s not ideal, and Coach Sean McDermott has said as much.

The team needs to get the running backs going, and it seems like that means relying more on Devin Singletary. While we envisioned the Bills using a sort of three-headed-monster of Singletary, short-yardage back Zack Moss, and passing-game back James Cook, Singletary has become the only one the team can rely on.

Last week, Singletary played 87.1% of the snaps and received 11 of the 14 non-Josh Allen rushes. The week before against Miami, he saw 74.4% of snaps and carried nine of the 15 non-Allen rushes. It makes sense that Buffalo will likely lean on Singletary again this Sunday.

However, the matchup will not be overly easy. Pittsburgh ranks 10th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry, even though they rank 24th in rushing yards allowed per game since teams have been able to take early leads and run the, out against the Steelers this year.

Yet, there may be some cracks in the armor as the Steelers have allowed over 100 yards on the ground each of the last two weeks, to the Browns and Jets, and five total rushing touchdowns after allowing 166 yards and one touchdown in the first two games combined.

Perhaps the Bills can find a way to get the running backs going to add a third 100-yard game to the Steeler’s ledger.

Does Pittsburgh Have the Next Standout Rookie Reciever?

While the Bills will likely increase the responsibilities of their rookie receiver, Khalil Shakir, another rookie receiver on the field is likely to draw more national attention.

Pittsburgh rookie George Pickens was a standout during the preseason but never quite seemed to gel with Mitchell Trubisky; however, he was Pickett’s most targeted receiver during the second half last Sunday and easily had his best game of the season, with six catches for 102 yards.

With rookie receivers like the Falcons’ Drake London, Packers’ Romeo Doubs, Commanders’ Jahan Dotson, and Jets’ Garrett Wilson already off to strong starts, Pickens will look to be the next name added to the list.

The Georgia product burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2019, catching 49 passes for 727 yards and eight touchdowns on a loaded Georgia team, but injuries would cause him to play only 12 games for the rest of his collegiate career. Now fully healthy, there’s a good chance we’ve yet to see the best of George Pickens, and Buffalo will need to account for him on Sunday.