Two AFC West rivals clash on Monday Night when the Kansas City Chiefs look to continue their recent dominance over the visiting Las Vegas Raiders.
Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
Game Details:
- Location: Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, CA
- Time: Monday, October 10th at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN
Betting Stats:
- SPREAD: KC -7
- OVER/UNDER:
Preview:
This rivalry really hasn’t been much of a rivalry lately. The Chiefs have dominated lately, winning 15 wins of the last 18 matchups against the Raiders. Last year, they won both matchups, scoring 89 combined points in two games. To make matters worse, Kansas City has scored 30 or more in each of their last five against the Raiders.
The Raiders may be hoping to catch the Chiefs napping on Monday in what is shaping up to be a textbook “trap game” for the home team. Kansas City just faced Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football, and then next week they will host the Bills in a rematch of last year’s wild AFC Divisional Round Playoff game.
Head coach Josh McDaniels’ got his first Las Vegas win beating the Broncos 32-23, but it hasn’t been a good start to the year for the former Patriots assistant. The Raiders ranked 13th in the league in passing offense and 14th in rushing offense, and it was the rushing, led by Josh Jacobs that carried them last week. In fact, the Raiders are 8-2 in Jacobs’ career when he goes over 100 yards on the ground.
While Jacobs seems to be the key to Las Vegas’ success, that could be a problem on Monday night since Kansas City has been almost impossible to run on of late. Over the last two weeks, they held Leonard Fournette and Jonathan Taylor to 68 combined yards. That’s an insane stat.
If the Raiders are forced to take to the air, they’re going to need more from quarterback Derek Carr, who was supposed to take a big step forward this year.
On the year, Carr is 94-of-154 for 1,038 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions. His main target has been, unsurprisingly, Davante Adams who leads the team with 26 catches for 290 yards and three touchdowns in his first season since coming over from Green Bay.
A positive for Carr is that slot receiver Hunter Renfrow returned to practice after missing the last two weeks with a concussion, so he should give the team another reliable option in the receiving game.
When Kansas City has the ball, it’s all about Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs’ signal-caller has been fantastic this season with 11 touchdown passes to just two interceptions while throwing for 1,106 passing yards. He has also destroyed the Raiders over the past few seasons and threw for almost 700 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions against them in 2021.
Even without Tyreek Hill, this Kansas City offense has been really hard to stop. They are 2nd in the league in scoring at 32.3 points per game. Part of that success is because of their depth.
Travis Kelce leads the team with 26 catches for 322 yards and three touchdowns, but Mahomes has really been able to spread out the wealth. So far, JuJu Smith-Schuster has 19 catches, Mecole Hardman has eight catches, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 13 catches, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 13 catches. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has also added 41 carries for 208 yards plus two touchdowns this season.
It may simply be too much firepower for Las Vegas to keep up with.
Picks:
Player Props:
Patrick Mahomes Over 275.5 passing yards
We just covered above all the reasons that we should be hammering this prop. Read above and then place your bet.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at PointsBet (-115) or BetRivers (-115)
Davante Adams Over 76.5 receiving yards
If the Chiefs are going to put up points then the Raiders are going to need to try to match them. We covered above why that might be hard for them to do on the ground, which means they’ll need to go to the air. Davante has a 32.4% target share this season, so if the Raiders are going to the air, he figures to be the main beneficiary.
SPORTSBOOK:
Mecole Hardman Under 34.5 receiving yards
We spoke above about how the Chiefs love to spread the ball around. That makes it really hard to rely on any one particular receiver to have a strong day, aside from Travis Kelce. Hardman has been the least involved of any of the receivers so far, so I feel most comfortable betting against him. I know “unders” seem like they’re not fun, but as somebody once said, they mean you’re winning your bet from the start of the game.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at Fanduel (-117)
