For the second year in a row, the Washington Nationals will trade away one of their best players at the deadline. The team announced on Tuesday that they are sending All-Star outfielder Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres a year after packaging All-Stars Trea Turner and Max Scherzer in a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
A two-time All-Star and both MVP and Rookie of the Year runner-up, in 2021 and 2018 respectively, Juan Soto is one of the best players in the game at just 23 years old. The Nationals had claimed they were going to build around him after dealing away Scherzer and Turner last year, but it seems that a 35-69 start to the 2022 season made ownership feel differently about how close the team was to contending.
But Washington’s loss is San Diego’s gain.
McKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell III, James Wood
and Jarlin Susana plus Hosmer (3-$39M after this season) to Wash for Soto/Bell. That is probably the most substantive deal in deadline history— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) August 2, 2022
Despite the lack of production in the lineup around him, Soto is having another tremendous season. Through 101 games, he has 21 home runs, 62 runs, 46 RBI, and six stolen bases. He’s also in the midst of his third straight season with over a 20% walk rate (20.9%) and under a 15% strikeout rate (14.2%). He’s also 9th in the National League in ISO (.240), 12th in barrel rate (12.5%), and 5th in wRC+ (151).
The only downside from his surface-level stats is a .246 batting average. However, much of that can be chalked up to pitcher pitching around Soto and bad luck since the average comes with a .243 batting average on balls in play, down from his .314 career.
The addition of Juan Soto and Josh Bell in the lineup immediately makes the Padres a World Series favorite. Especially with fellow superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. on the mend from wrist surgery and expected back in a couple of weeks.
In fact, the inclusion of Josh Bell in this deal can’t be overstated. The 29-year-old impending free agent is in the midst of an All-Star campaign, hitting .301/.384/.493 with 14 home runs, 57 RBI, and 52 runs scored in 103 games. While he lacks the tremendous power he flashed in 2019, he has elite plate discipline and makes consistent contact. He figures to be the ideal fifth or sixth hitter in the lineup behind Tatis Jr. Soto, and Manny Machado.
With that lineup and a rotation that features Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, and Sean Manaea, it wouldn’t be a surprise for the Padres to end the night as the World Series favorites.
In return, the Nationals will get a number of the Padres’ top prospects including their top two: outfielder Robert Hassell (the #5 prospect in baseball) and outfielder James Wood (the #11 prospect in baseball). The Nationals will also be receiving two former Padres’ top prospects, shortstop C.J. Abrams and left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, as well as the Padres’ 7th prospect, pitching Jarlin Susana, and first baseman Eric Hosmer.
Of course, that is, pending Eric Hosmer’s approval.
CORRECTION: The Nationals are on Eric Hosmer's 10-team no-trade list. He would have to give his consent to be in a deal with Washington.
— Dennis Lin (@dennistlin) August 2, 2022
While we later learned that Eric Hosmer had rejected the deal. The Padres swapped him out with first baseman Luke Voit, who would also go to the Nationals in the deal.
Although no longer prospects, Gore and Abrams are still highly regarded in prospect circles.
Abrams played in 46 games for the big league club this year, hitting .232/.285/.320 with two home runs, 11 RBI, and 16 runs. However, he was hitting .314 in Triple-A with seven home runs, 28 RBI, 35 runs, and 10 stolen bases in just 30 games, so few people are worried about his slow start at the MLB level.
Gore has had a longer road to the big show. After exploding to the top of prospect lists after the 2019 season, Gore struggled with command in 2020 and 2021, and there were some doubts about whether or not he would figure it out. However, he was tremendous early in 2022 before struggling with command in his last few starts and, ultimately, going on the IL with left elbow inflammation. Still, he’s 23 years old at showed that he can succeed at the major league level, which will give the Nationals a potentially strong, young tandem with Josiah Gray, who was acquired in the Dodgers trade.
While it seems like a massive haul, the Nationals will be hoping the big names perform a little better than the highly touted prospects they received from the Dodgers last year. The 24-year-old Gray has an impressive 27% strikeout rate with the Nationals this year but has been inconsistent with a 4.59 ERA, 4.19xFIP, and 1.28 WHIP. Catcher Keibert Ruiz has not been much better so far. The switch-hitter, who was one of the best prospects in the Dodgers’ organization is hitting .245/.305/.337 with three home runs, 23 runs, 23 RBI, and five steals.
Obviously, both players are young and have plenty of time to grow into their true talents, but it’s an inauspicious start for highly-rated prospects traded for two of the game’s biggest stars and will undoubtedly give Nationals’ fans some concern when it comes to evaluating the return for Juan Soto.
An evaluation that likely won’t be complete for years to come. As the Mets saw when they got panned for trading Jared Kelenic to Seattle for Edwin Diaz, the valuation of a prospect can change drastically in just a year. For today, the Padres have decided to mortgage their future for a chance to win now, while the Nationals have gambled one of the game’s biggest stars on the belief that they’re stockpiling another version of the Scherzer, Turner, Soto, and Anthony Rendon roster that won them a World Series.
Only time will tell who made the better bet today.
