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MLB free picks and best bets for August 1st

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Max Scherzer pitches in a 2022 MLB game
New York Mets’ Max Scherzer pitches during the first inning of the team’s baseball game against the San Diego Padres on Friday, July 22, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet. 

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MLB Best Bets for August 1st

Today's MLB picks

Let’s start with the only runline play of the night. It’s Max Scherzer versus Patrick Corbin in Washington, and there’s a slight chance that one or all of Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz, and Juan Soto get removed mid-game due to a trade. Even without that possibility, our model has the Mets favored by two runs, and I like them to win by more than that tonight. 

On the moneyline, I only saw two plays I liked on tonight’s slate. The Rangers are facing a surging Orioles team, but I think they have the far better starter on the hill as Jon Gray has been electric over the last six weeks. Our model likes the Rangers by 1.60 runs, but their odds have climbed to -163 since open so you might want to pair it with the over since our model has this finishing at 9.32 total runs. 

Another option is to parlay it with the Dodgers ML which I like at (-141). I guess Vegas doesn’t trust Andrew Heaney in his first start back, which is understandable, but this is just a vastly superior Dodgers team. Our model has the Dodgers winning by 2.01 total runs, and even if we regress Heaney to league average, our model still has the Dodgers coming out ahead. 

Lastly, the final two O/U of the day are in Miami and New York. The Reds and Marlins are both in a tailspin. Also, look at the Reds starting lineup today. There are maybe two or three good hitters in there, and it’s not much better on the Marlins’ side. Meanwhile, Hunter Greene and Jesus Luzardo have proven to be solid starters. Our model has this game at 6.42 total runs, which makes under 7.5 a tight squeeze but one I’ll play at -118. 

The model also has the Yankees favored by three runs over Seattle tonight, but Domingo German scares me so I can’t take the runline. Still, our model has the Yankees alone projected for 6.77 runs and sees this finishing at 10.56 total runs, so I’ll gladly go over nine (-115). 

 

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Jon Gray delivers a pitch in 2022 MLB action
Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jon Gray throws against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning of an MLB game, Wednesday, July 27, 2022, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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