Week 1 of the NFL season is here, and with it comes our first Monday Night Football showdown. We’ll break down the game and give you our predictions and favorite bets to help make the game more enjoyable for you.
Denver Broncos (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)
@ Lumen Field in Seattle, WA
How to Watch:
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN/ABC
Betting Stats:
- Spread: DEN -6.5 (-114)
- Over/Under: 44 (-112)
- Moneyline: DEN (-305), SEA (+240)
Matchup:
The big storyline in our first Monday Night Football matchup of the season is clearly Russell Wilson coming back to Seattle for the first time as a member of the Denver Broncos.
In the offseason, Seattle shipped their former franchise quarterback to Denver for quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris, two first-round picks (2022 and 202), two-second round picks (2022 and 2023), and a fifth-round pick.
While Wilson will obviously be motivated coming in, the question is just how much the 33-year-old has left in the tank. Wilson was dealing with a thumb injury last season so his performance should be taken with a grain of salt, but there are some questions about whether he still has the high-end upside we’ve seen in the past.
If the elite talent remains, he should be able to showcase it with the weapons around him. He’ll be throwing to three talented young receivers in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler. However, the Broncos also have two strong running backs in Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III, so it’s possible Wilson has left one run-first offense for another.
Meanwhile, his old team won’t be turning to the quarterback they acquire in the Wilson trade. The Seahawks named Geno Smith their starting quarterback after the former Jet beat out Lock in the preseason. Smith will also have weapons around him as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remain in Seattle.
However, the rest of the Seahawks roster is young and/or inexperienced. They will start two rookies on the offensive line, and while that might be great for the long-term future of the team, that’s not ideal against Bradley Chubb and a loaded Broncos defensive line.
The atmosphere will no doubt be raucous as the Seattle fans try to welcome Wilson back with a loss. However, at the end of the day, the talent discrepancy might just be too large.
Top Player Props:
If you’re going to be betting on action besides the moneyline, here are three player props we like from Monday night’s game:
This Javonte Williams line is too low. I know Melvin Gordon is still in town, but Javonte is the 1A here in a game that Denver should control. I could see him hitting 80-100 yards on the ground, so 61 seems well within reach.
The fact that the Broncos should be up a decent amount also makes me like this Geno Smith prop. Hitting 209 passing yards doesn’t even mean he needs to be good. Without Kenneth Walker II, most of the remaining Seattle running backs, aside from Rashaad Penny, are better as receivers and Smith had some success with Lockett/Metcalf last year.
Lastly, the Broncos beat writers can’t stop talking about KJ Hamler. He’s the main slot receiver or WR3 now that Tim Patrick is out for the year, so I think he could be a strong bet to be really active in this offense. Given the odds here, it’s really just meant for a small bet.
Key Injuries:
- KJ Hamler – WR, Denver: Knee/hip (QUESTIONABLE)
- Josey Jewell – LB, Denver: Calf (DOUBTFUL)
- Randy Gregory – OLB, Denver: Shoulder (QUESTIONABLE)
- Kenneth Walker III – RB, Seattle: Hernia (QUESTIONABLE)
- Alton Robinson – LB, Seattle: Knee (OUT)
- Artie Burnes – CB, Seattle: Groin (DOUBTFUL)
