With roughly seven weeks to go in this year’s Democratic mayoral primary, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo continues to lead the field by a wide margin, while Queens Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani is the only other candidate who has gained significant momentum.
But will candidates’ expected big spending on TV advertising in the coming weeks be enough to shake things up? Here’s where the 2025 NYC Mayor’s race stands right now.
Cuomo dominating polls
Cuomo, who resigned in 2021 amid multiple allegations of sexual harassment that he denies, has led the crowded race in a series of public polls since launching his campaign on March 1. He is filling the moderate lane once occupied by incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who opted out of the Democratic primary and launched an independent bid in the general election after his federal corruption case was dismissed last month.
The former governor has by far gained the most support from institutional pols, such as Brooklyn and Queens Democratic Party Chairs Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn and Gregory Meeks, respectively, and labor unions, including 32BJ SEIU and 1199SEIU. He has raked in over $1.5 million in private donations and is buoyed by millions more raised by a super PAC backing his run, though the city Campaign Finance Board (CFB) denied him a crucial tranche of matching funds last month.
In a Friday interview on Pix11, Cuomo reiterated his central campaign message that he jumped into the race because the city is “in crisis” and he believes he can fix it.
“We’re in a bad place, and I’m a New York City boy, through and through. I love this city,” Cuomo said. “I was worried that we are at a pivot point, and if we don’t get our act together quickly, you’re gonna see this city decline. And I just couldn’t sit by and let that happen.”
Mamdani emerging as main alternative
The Democratic socialist Mamdani has seen his campaign continue to rise in the polls. He consistently places second behind Cuomo while still trailing the former governor by double digits. Nevertheless, Mamdani’s straightforward platform appears to be resonating with many voters, which is evident in his status as the strongest fundraiser in the race.
“We have built a movement that transcends race and class, a movement that reaches from the sandy beaches of Coney Island to the cricket pitches of Van Cortlandt Park,” Mamdani said during a Sunday night rally in Brooklyn attended by over a thousand supporters. “Ours is a movement that asks New Yorkers to reimagine what we think is possible—and we’ve built it together, side by side, door by door.”
Meanwhile, many of the other major candidates—including city Comptroller Brad Lander, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, and Brooklyn state senator Zellnor Myrie—have failed to gain traction. That has remained true even as each of them has notched their own major endorsements.
‘Getting late early’ for the Democratic field
Democratic strategist Trip Yang said Cuomo and Mamdani are leading the field in first and second place due to name recognition, institutional backing, and grassroots support, respectively.
“It’s really Cuomo’s name ID and perceived political strength, getting all of these endorsements, that has him out in the lead and Zohran running a very energetic, free-spirited, authentic economic-populist style of campaign that has him surging to second place,” Yang told amNewYork Metro. “Aside from that, you have a bunch of the other candidates bunched up together.”
Since even before officially jumping into the race, Cuomo’s rivals have been attacking him nearly every day over his record as governor and the scandals — including the sexual misconduct allegations and his handling of COVID-19 in nursing homes, which he denies — that brought down his administration. They have also hit him over skipping most mayoral forums, holding limited press availabilities, accepting contributions from Trump donors, and using AI for research in crafting his housing plan.
Another Democratic strategist, Evan Stavitsky, said that with just weeks to go until the June 24 primary, candidates are running out of time to chip away at Cuomo’s lead and change the shape of the race.
“Yogi Berra famously said, ‘it’s getting late early out there,'” Stavitsky said, quoting the legendary New York Yankees catcher. “He was talking about baseball, but the same holds true for the mayor’s race. The closer that we get to the start of early voting with nothing to shake up the dynamic of the race, the harder it is for someone to surge to the top who can provide a credible challenge to Andrew Cuomo.”
Is TV Cuomo’s worst enemy?
Although none of the attacks on Cuomo so far appear to have affected his numbers, that dynamic could change now that candidates are spending money to promote their negative messaging about him on TV.
“The one potential Achilles Heel for Cuomo is that his unfavorables are fairly high, which means that there’s the potential for his numbers to drop if negative and contrast ads against Cuomo were running on paid media,” Yang said. “All of these various candidates, they should spend their millions of dollars on TV ads, direct mail, digital buys, attacking Cuomo, so his numbers drop.”
However, if candidates expend their resources on going after Cuomo, they risk losing the opportunity to introduce themselves to voters and promote their own platforms, Yang said.
That tension is already visible in ads released by Mamdani and Myrie over the past couple of weeks, with Mamdani using his spot to contrast himself with Cuomo and Myrie choosing to focus on his own biography.
Furthermore, Yang said there is a “collective action problem” that arises when trying to get various candidates who all want to be mayor to act in concert. He said that while the Working Families Party endorsed a slate of four candidates — Mamdani, Lander, Speaker Adams, and Myrie — as an alliance against Cuomo, those contenders are all still looking out for themselves first.
Stavisky argued that even if candidates collectively hit the airwaves to attack Cuomo there is no guarantee that will make a difference, given that he is a known entity much of whose baggage has been public for years.
“He’s really well known and really well defined in the minds of voters,” Stavisky said. “He may have a ceiling to his support, but he also has a much higher floor.”
