The penultimate Saturday of the Belmont Park spring racing meet features a pair of intriguing stakes races: the John A. Nerud Stakes for older sprinters; and the Dwyer Stakes, a one-mile test for 3-year-olds.
Seven horses are entered in the featured Nerud, led by Candy Man Rocket, the speedy sprinter who ran well in winning the six-furlong Runhappy Stakes at Belmont back in May. He’ll stretch out another furlong from that effort, and his main competition is Weyburn, a horse who seems to find luck in seven-furlong races like the Nerud.
Lifetime, Weyburn — trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Jose Ortiz — has never finished worse than second in five starts at seven furlongs. His most recent win at the distance was at Gulfstream Park in the Sir Shackleton Stakes back in April, but Weyburn was a distant third in the one-mile Westchester Stakes at Belmont Park last out.
The dropback in distance should help Weyburn, as would his natural speed. Weyburn’s third place finish in the Westchester Stakes earned him a 100 Beyer speed figure; meanwhile, Candy Man Rocket’s victory in the Runhappy Stakes was a career-best 97 figure effort.
Still, William Mott, Candy Man Rocket’s trainer, has confidence his sprinter can succeed while stretching out to seven furlongs.
“He’s run some good races and if he gets a good trip, he usually runs pretty well,” Mott said in a New York Racing Association press release. “I think he’s fine on the lead or fine with a target. It just depends how the race sets up.”
Weyburn and Candy Man Rocket are the top two choices on the morning line. If you’re looking for better odds, you might want to consider Twisted Ride, who finished second in the Runhappy but won a seven-furlong stakes race at Parx Racing the start prior; and Little Vic, a disappointing sixth in the Carter Handicap at Aqueduct last out but who won the Tom Fool Stakes back in March.
Our picks: Weyburn, Twisted Ride, Candy Man Rocket
Dwyer Stakes
As for the Dwyer Stakes, just six horses are set for the starting gate led by the heavy morning-line favorite Fort Bragg. Trained by Bob Baffert, Fort Bragg was a speedy second in the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard — but one wonders if he really wants the mile trip.
Outside of a slow maiden win as a two-year-old last year, Fort Bragg has never won beyond one mile. He was a well-beaten fifth in the Florida Derby before going to the lead and being caught and passed by General Jim in the Pat Day Mile.
If one of the runners engages Fort Bragg in an early speed duel in the Dwyer, it’s unlikely the Baffert horse will have enough to win. The only benefit to Fort Bragg is the race lacks a proven rival — though there are two horses who could spring the upset.
One is Saudi Crown, who’s stretching out to a one-turn mile after an impressive win in a 6 ½-furlong allowance sprint against older horses at Churchill Downs last out. Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Javier Castellano, he’s got the pedigree (by Always Dreaming) to get the extra distance and the speed to compete with the likes of Fort Bragg.
Another upset chance is Harrodsburg, trained by Rob Atras with Manny Franco in the irons. He nearly beat 6-year-old Listentoyourheart in a Belmont allowance last out, but the effort saw his Equibase speed figures improve from a 90 in his maiden win to 99.
The main knock against Harrodsburg is that Listentoyourheart did not flatter his form in his most recent outing, a sixth-place finish in another Belmont allowance.
Fort Bragg is clearly the fastest horse in the race, and his connections are hoping that will be enough to get him to the winner’s circle in the Dwyer. But if Saudi Dream or Harrodsburg flash speed and stamina, Fort Bragg will find himself caught and passed again.
Our picks: Saudi Dream, Fort Bragg, Harrodsburg
Post parade notes
- Will Cody’s Wish get the test racing fans have been waiting for in the Whitney Stakes? Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile champion — whose connection with Cody Dorman, a Kentucky boy battling a rare disabling condition known as Wolf-Hirschhorn Syndrome, has touched the hearts of racing fans everywhere — has proven he’s the best miler in the country. But after a dominant victory in the Metropolitan Mile on the Belmont Stakes undercard, his trainer, William Mott, indicated that the two-turn, nine-furlong Whitney Stakes might be his next race. After training a sharp 48.48 half-mile at the Oklahoma training track at Saratoga on June 26, Mott said the Whitney would be a strong possibility. “It’s [nine furlongs] always a question,” he told NYRA. “He’s won his Breeders’ Cup going a two-turn mile, but he’s not won at a mile and an eighth. You never know until they do it.” Certainly, if Cody’s Wish runs in the Whitney and wins it, there’s a solid chance Mott might want to try him in the 10-furlong Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita.
- Speaking of Mott, he might be having his best year since the days he trained the great Cigar to 16 straight victories between 1994 and 1996. Along with having the best miler in America, he’s got Elite Power, the defending Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion who easily won the True North Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard last out. While Cody’s Wish’s next start is still uncertain, Mott told NYRA this week that Elite Power’s next race will be the A.G. Vanderbilt Handicap, a grade 1, six-furlong sprint at Saratoga on July 29.
- Two Phil’s dominated, as expected, in the Ohio Derby last Saturday, and looked like he was ready to give the Triple Crown race winners a run for the money later this season. But an injury after the race forced the brilliant colt’s career to come to a premature end. Fortunately, Two Phil’s injury was not life-threatening, and a valuable stud career awaits.
