Enough delegates are at stake on this particular Tuesday to bring a sense of clarity, if not conclusion.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has so far failed to put away the stubbornly persistent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has ratcheted up his criticisms of the frontrunner. He can do damage to her status of inevitability with a Midwestern sweep here; or she will hold her ground, signaling a long slog to the convention in July that will ultimately result in her nomination.
For the Republicans, this may be the end for the also-rans. In a normal year, losses for Ohio Gov. John Kasich or Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in their home states would be the end of the line. But continued machinations by the party establishment to stop Donald Trump may defy all political logic. Or, reality will set in and a true two-man race between Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz will get started.
If the weekend of violence at Trump rallies unsettled some likely supporters, we’ll find out on Tuesday. After comments about the wall, the pope, John McCain, the disabled, Lil’ Marco, his appendage, Mitt Romney, and Lyin’ Ted didn’t? Seems unlikely.
Here’s our preview for the big day.
Florida
Democrats (214 pledged delegates at stake): Clinton leads massively in all recent polls in the Sunshine State, with consistent double-digit differentials. Offering the most delegates in Tuesday’s contests, Florida should be a sturdy win for the secretary.
Republicans (99 delegates at stake): It’s a more consequential contest on the Republican side, though no closer: In recent polls, Donald Trump has been doubling the count of local boy Rubio, who is barely ahead of rival Cruz in recent polls.
Illinois
Democrats (156 pledged delegates at stake): In a tight race, Clinton has a small lead and is counting on her institutional support to clinch this crucial, delegate-rich contest. But the local establishment isn’t necessarily going to deliver: Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has been the target of protests over his uneasy handling of police-community relations.
Republicans (69 delegates at stake): Trump is leading Cruz in Illinois, but not by much. Should Cruz win, the actual number of delegates wouldn’t be hugely rewarding: The state awards delegates by congressional districts, so expect a divided tally.
Ohio
Democrats (143 pledged delegates at stake): Sanders has gained support here in recent months, but Clinton still holds a single-digit lead in the polls. “Sanders is an unabashed opponent of free trade,” says Paul Beck, a professor emeritus of political science at the Ohio State University. That plays well in this state, where the decline of American manufacturing looms large.
Republicans (66 delegates at stake): On Monday, four former Buckeye coaches endorsed Kasich (the current coach already made the leap). That’s home field advantage. Kasich is fighting a tight battle with Trump here, and would-be Trump slayer Mitt Romney has been in-state for support. Should Kasich win, it will give him a boost over Rubio in the event of a contested convention.
Missouri
Democrats (71 pledged delegates at stake): It’s the smallest prize on both sides of the aisle on Tuesday, but also a bellwether. On the Democratic side, the difficult-to-predict open primary looks to be neck and neck. “If you took the election right now and took it tomorrow morning you might get a different result,” says Dave Robertson, chair of the political science department at University of Missouri-St. Louis, noting that Sanders support has been strong in St. Louis, the “western-most Rust Belt city.”
Republicans (52 delegates at stake): The Republican side features as much strife, for as little gain. This is the land of State Sen. Todd Akin, a proposed “religious freedom” amendment, and lawmaker plans to defund Planned Parenthood. This tradition of social conservatism should give Cruz a chance. But the more salient issue might be “a certain frustration that’s economically driven,” says Robynn Kuhlmann, assistant professor of political science at the University of Central Missouri. That’s Trump territory.
North Carolina
Democrats (107 pledged delegates at stake): Wrapping up the southern primary states, Clinton is expected to continue her Sherman-esque march of victory south of the Mason-Dixon line. Clinton maintains a sturdy lead.
Republicans (72 delegates at stake): Trump is firmly ahead here as well, with only Cruz within striking range. North Carolina was the site of the now-infamous rally where a protester was sucker-punched by a Trump supporter. That kind of violence has always been simmering just beneath the surface in the Trump pitch. Now, it’s receiving electoral sustenance.
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