Yankees vs. Blue Jays ALDS Game 1 Betting Preview: Odds, Home Run Props, and Expert Prediction

The New York Yankees will play more October baseball this afternoon following Thursday night’s 4-0 shutout victory over the Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of the American League Wild Card series. By virtue of the win, New York will advance to meet the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Division Series (ALDS). Suddenly, there are only eight remaining baseball teams in action as the 2025 MLB season speeds to a close over the next few weeks.  

Despite the A.L. East rivalry, New York and Toronto have never met in postseason baseball action. The Blue Jays held the advantage during the 2025 regular season with an 8-5 record over the Bronx Bombers as Toronto averaged 5.3 runs per game against New York this season. The Yankees posted 4.5 runs per games against the A.L. East champion Blue Jays this season.  

Yankees-Blue Jays Lines & Odds

Toronto enters Game 1 of the ALDS as a 1.5 run favorite over the Yankees, according to FanDuel. This figure remains consistent with the Wild Card round where New York held the slight advantage over Boston due to the games being played at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. With this weekend’s matchups taking place at Rogers Centre in Canada, the hometown Blue Jays get the opening run support on the spread. 

During the 2025 regular season, the Yankees and Blue Jays exceeded the 7.5 over/under figure more often than not. New York covered the spread eight  times during the season, while five contests settled under the projected seven-and-a-half run mark. Therefore, it could be a good decision to invest in runs in this series between the Yankees and Blue Jays. 

Luis Gil vs. Kevin Gausman Duel in Series Opener

New York sends right-handed starter Luis Gil to the mound for the ALDS  against the Blue Jays. After a 15-7 record over 29 starts for the Yankees in 2024, Gil missed more than half of this season due to a lat strain injury suffered during Spring Training. Despite the limited sample size in 2025, Gil has recorded a 4-1 record and a 3.32 earned run average (ERA) over 11 starts. During last season’s playoff run, Gil started two games but did not record a decision in either game. He allowed eight hits and six runs over eight innings in two starts last postseason.

Toronto counters with a 2012 first-round pick of the Baltimore Orioles, Kevin Gausman. The 34-year-old veteran recorded a 10-11 record with a 3.59 ERA over 193 innings in 2025. Gausman has had forgettable statistics over six postseason appearances in his career with an 0-2 record and a 4.91 career ERA. With an average of 3.5 runs allowed per game over his last three playoff starts, the righty will be seeking a better result as Toronto gets their postseason underway. 

Yankees Home Run Odds in Game 1 

The Yankees reached the ALCS by hitting just two home runs in three games against Boston, courtesy of Anthony Volpe and Ben Rice. In 13 matchups this season against Toronto, the Yankees lineup has been feast-or-famine with the longball. In a memorable series sweep over the July 4th weekend at Yankee Stadium, New York smashed nine home runs over three games as they outscored Toronto, 31-19. With that series removed, the Yankees cracked just four home runs over the remaining 10 ballgames against the Blue Jays this season. 

New York averaged nearly 10 hits per game against Toronto in 2025. With the power in the Yankees lineup from players like Aaron Judge, the Yankees might be able to run into a few home runs in this ALDS faceoff against the Blue Jays.

While Gausman struck out 189 batters this season, he was also susceptible to the home run ball  as he allowed 77 home runs trots this season, tied for the third-highest figure in his decade-plus MLB career. 

Game 1 Prediction – Yankees 5, Blue Jays 4

New York will have a slight advantage in Game 1 after blitzing past the Boston Red Sox in the American League Wild Card round with a shutout in the final game of the series while Toronto played intrasquad simulated games. Not only did they overcome their hated-rival, but the Yankees also did so without utilizing their league-leading power numbers from the regular season. New York bashed two round-trippers in three games against Boston, and they equal that number in a tight victory against the Blue Jays to open the 2025 ALDS.  

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