Two of the best teams in football square off when the Vikings travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills.

Minnesota Vikings (7-1) @ Buffalo Bills (6-2)

Game Details:

Location: Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, NY
Time: Sunday, November 13th at 1:00 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

Betting Stats:

SPREAD: BUF -3.5
OVER/UNDER: 43.5

Top Matchups/Storylines:

What can the Bills expect from Case Keenum?

As we covered earlier in the week, it’s looking increasingly like Buffalo will be without Josh Allen on Sunday as he recovers from a UCL (elbow) sprain. Given that the Bills are currently the top seed in the AFC, it makes sense for them to be cautious with their star quarterback in the hopes that he can be healthy for a playoff run. That means Case Keenum will likely be under center against his old team.

This is not new territory for Keenum, who has made a decade-long career out of being one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league.

Since coming into the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2012, Keenum has started 64 gamed and compiled a 29-35 record. He has thrown for almost 15,000 yards, including back-to-back 3,500+ yard seasons in 2017-18, and has a 78-48 touchdown to interception ratio.

Keenum is obviously not the rusher or deep ball passer that Allen is, but he’s not just a dink-and-dunk quarterback. In 2017 with the Vikings, Keenum’s average air yards per attempt was 7.6, which is actually higher than all but one of Allen’s seasons in Buffalo. Keenum was also airing out passes to Stefon Diggs that year, with Diggs catching 64 passes for 849 yards and eight touchdowns.

Keenum also used his tight end, Kyle Rudolph, pretty heavily that year, which could mean more work for Dawson Knox over the middle. Since Keenum is not the runner that Allen is, we can also expect more running back usage in the passing game or more dump-offs in general if Keenum is under pressure, which isn’t a bad thing given that all three Buffalo backs are solid in the receiving game.

Keenum also has a career sack rate that is almost identical to Allen’s, so we shouldn’t expect him to simply be a human statue back there. He has decent pocket presence and has a solid 62.3% completion rate over his career, including 67.6% while starting for Minnesota and 64.8% as a starter in Washington in 2019.

Can Buffalo establish a running game?

However, in order to help keep this offense humming, the Bills are going to need to establish a ground game. I’ve been critical of their offensive line all season for being a poor run-blocking unit, and they’re going to need to answer the call on Sunday.

It will also be interesting to see how the Bills divvy up the rushes without Allen in the backfield. After coming off back-to-back performances with over 50% of the team’s rushes, Devin Singletary had a rough game against the Jets. He made the wrong read on some carries early, got run over in pass protection, and the Bills went away from the run in the second half.

James Cook has had 18% of the team’s snaps in the last two weeks and could look to take on a bigger role on Sunday. The team will also have a full week with Nyheim Hines at practice, which means Hines could actually take some carries.

Another factor is that Singletary is the least explosive pass catcher of the three backs. If Buffalo wants to utilize the running backs in the passing game, we could see more of Cooks and Hines to persuade the defense to come up into the flats and out of the two-high safety looks that have been limiting the Buffalo offense of late.

Will the Buffalo secondary be healthy enough to stop Justin Jefferson?

On the defensive side of the ball, the big question revolves around the health of Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer. White has been back and practicing with the team as he recovers from his ACL injury, but he has yet to get on the field. Poyer is recuperating from a persistent elbow injury and also missed last week against the Jets.

This would be a great game to have them both back because Buffalo will face one of the best WRs in the league in Justin Jefferson.

Jefferson is currently second in the league in receiving yards at 867 and has the fifth-most receptions at 59. Not relevant to his skills, but he was also the Vikings’ pick that they acquired from the Bills in the trade for Diggs.

Minnesota also recently traded for T.J. Hockenson and have Adam Thielen, who was limited in practice early in the week, so there are plenty of options the Bills need to account for.

Can the Bills fix their run defense in just one week?

However, a bigger concern for the Buffalo Bills’ defense may be their ability to stop the run. They have been embarrassed for two straight weeks after Green Bay ran for 208 yards and the Jets almost hit 180. The Jets also ran the ball eight straight times on their game-winning drive.

Now, part of the struggles against the Jets was the result of stud linebacker Matt Milano being out. He’s back at practice this week and should return on Sunday, which is great news for this defense. However, he was on the field against the Packers, and the Bills were still trounced, so this isn’t the only issue.

Can the Bills fix their run defense in time for a showdown against Dalvin Cook and a Minnesota offense that’s 8th in rush DVOA? For comparison, GB is 13th and the Jets are 17th and they both dominated the Bills on the ground. I’m not sure what adjustments defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier plans to make, but there need to be some.

Will the dominance in Buffalo continue?

Even though things are not looking up for Buffalo this week, there is some comfort in this game being played at home, where the Bills have been dominant. They are the only AFC team that is undefeated at home, joining the Eagles and Vikings as the only home undefeated teams in the league.

The Bills are also just manhandling teams at Highmark Stadium, outscoring their opponents 106 to 27 with an average margin of victory of 26.3 at home. That’s unlikely to continue this week, but if they can simply keep their undefeated home streak going, that would be a massive accomplishment.

Familiar faces in new places narrative

If you’re into narratives, this is the game for you. Case Keenum and Stefon Diggs were both teammates on the Vikings in 2017, and Diggs was vocal about his displeasure with his role on the team before his trade to the Buffalo Bills.

Meanwhile, Vikings defensive tackle Harrison Phillips returns to Buffalo, where he was one of the most beloved players, and Bills’ defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier coaches against his old team, as he was the Vikings’ head coach from 2011 to 2013. Finally, this is the first time Bills’ rookie running back James Cook will play in the NFL against his brother Dalvin Cook, the running back for Minnesota.