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Travelers Championship 2022: Best bets & deep value picks

US Open Golf
Rory McIlroy, of Northern Ireland, reacts after a putt on the 18th hole during the second round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at The Country Club, Friday, June 17, 2022, in Brookline, Mass. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

The Travelers Championship is here. After a weekend of thrilling action at Brookline, the PGA Tour heads to TPC River Highlands with a stacked field. From a betting perspective, there’s a lot of value to be found this week. I’ve done the hard work so you don’t have to. 

You can get a risk-free $1500 bet to use at the Travelers Championship by signing up to Caesars Sportsbook using this link

Custom model for the Travelers Championship

Over the past months, I’ve predicted 3 of the past 7 PGA Tour winners using this method. Max Homa at 40/1, Justin Thomas at 16/1, and Rory McIlroy at 14/1.

I build a custom model each week to try and find the best value plays for each course. This takes a combination of stats correlated to course success, recent form, and historic form in those metrics around the course in question, and those similar. 

TLDR: I spend way too long looking at niche stats and historical trends to see which golfers have the best chance of success. If you want to see and use the model for yourself, you can do so by joining our Discord server here.

Top value picks

My top graded golfers this week are Xander Schauffele (+1800) and Patrick Cantlay (+1200). Schauffele is the runaway favorite by 4 points in my grading system, with a total of -18. Rory McIlroy sits on -13, and Scottie Scheffler sits on -12. Cantlay is just ahead at -14. 

Schauffele in particular screams value. His putting between 7-10 ft ranks 12th in the field, his form has been quietly excellent, and his average finish around correlated courses is 21st. Spicy.  

If you’re looking to bet one of the favorites this week (who are +900), why not take a punt on a slightly longer odds player who goes stride-for-stride with them in every metric?

Deep value plays for the Travelers Championship

Lucas Glover (+20000) is my 14th-highest-graded golfer going into this weekend. There are a lot of ways to play this course and despite the veteran being shorter off the tee, he ranks among the best in long-distance approaches. The only place he loses points in my model is in recent form (avg finish 61st) but his form around correlated courses grades out to an average finish of 39th. He may not win, but a shot at a top-10 or 20 if you bet that market? Absolutely worth a punt. 

Johnny Vegas (+15000) has been in exceptional form as of late and is my 16th highest-graded golfer. You’d be banking on some improved putter form, but he’s longer off the tee and is able to get himself out of trouble with relative ease. He’s a less volatile Glover-type play.

Doug Ghim has the same odds as Vegas but is my 20th graded golfer. The only area he actually loses strokes to the field is correlated putting. But the good news is that in his last 50 rounds, he ranks 40th in putting between 7-10 feet. He’s a high-risk play here at the Travelers Championship but again, an Each/Way bet or a top-20 finish could be the move here.

Custom model top-10

My top-10 golfers are as follows:

Xander Schauffele

Patrick Cantlay

Rory McIlroy

Scottie Scheffler

Justin Thomas

Sam Burns

Joaquin Niemann

Brooks Koepka

Mito Pereira

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

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