Two AFC teams look to remain in playoff contention when the Steelers travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins in Week 7’s Sunday Night Football showdown.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-3)
Game Details:
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL
- Time: Sunday, October 23rd at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Channel: NBC
Betting Stats:
- SPREAD: MIA -7.5
- OVER/UNDER: 44.5
After starting the season 3-0, the Miami Dolphins have dealt with an injury to Tua Tagovailoa and seen their season take a turn after three straight losses. Can the Dolphins begin to right the ship with Tua back?
Preview:
Injuries at quarterback are the big news for this game. We already mentioned that the Dolphins will get Tua Tagovailoa back for the first time since he suffered a concussion against the Bengals (likely his second in two games). However, the Steelers will also get their quarterback, rookie Kenny Pickett, back after he suffered a concussion in last week’s win over the Tampa Bay Bucs.
When Pickett got hurt last week, Mitch Trubisky, who started the season as the Steelers starting quarterback, came in to lead them to victory, going 9-of-12 for 144 yards with one touchdown. Trubisky looked less cautious now that he had already lost his job, and was taking more chances with the ball, which also caused him to look like a pretty solid quarterback against a good Bucs defense.
On the season, the Steelers offense has been pretty poor. They are averaging only 16.2 points per game and are unable to open any running lanes for second-year running back Najee Harris, who is averaging a poor 3.2 yards per carry. As a team, the Steelers are 28th in the NFL in rushing yards and aren’t likely to find much running room against a Miami defense that ranks 11th in run defense.
As a result, the Steelers will need Pickett or Trubisky to step up and move to ball with a solid trio of receivers in Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and George Pickens.
When Miami has the ball, they’ve also struggled to run the ball, ranking 30th in rush offense despite Raheem Mostert averaging 4.4 yards per carry. He might have a decent shot against the Steelers, who are allowing 141.3 yards rushing on the road this season even though they contained Tampa Bay’s run game at home last week, holding them to 2.9 yards per carry. Can Pittsburgh figure out how to stop the run game on the road?
It might be made easier with Tua back since Miami loves to throw the ball with Tua under center. Before getting hurt, he was among the league leaders in passing yards, and the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could have a field day against a Pittsburgh secondary that allows the 3rd-most passing yards in the league. The Steelers are also 26th in the NFL in yards allowed per completion, so these Dolphins receivers should be able to beat them deep a couple of times on Sunday night.
Picks:
Player Props:
Jaylen Waddle over 63.5 receiving yards
We talked above about why I think Waddle and the Miami receivers will have a strong outing on Sunday night, so I think this number is too low for somebody with Waddle’s big-play ability.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-110) ON FANDUEL
Najee Harris under 43.5 rushing yards
On the other side of the coin, the Steeler’s inability to run will likely not be fixed on Sunday night against the Miami defense. Najee Harris has also been losing some snaps to Jaylen Warren, which makes me even more confident that this total could be a little too high for him.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-120) ON BETMGM
Kenny Pickett over 224.5 passing yards
If Pittsburgh is not going to be able to run the ball effectively against Miami then they are going to have to throw it. Miami ranks 23rd in yards allowed per completion and 24th in passing yards allowed per game at 256.7 yards, so I think that Pickett, who might be chasing an early Miami lead, should be able to hit this over.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-115) ON BETMGM
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