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US Open updated betting odds: Who are the best bets to win the tournament?

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Nick Kyrgios at the US Open
Nick Kyrgios, of Australia, celebrates during his match against Daniil Medvedev, of Russia, during the fourth round of the U.S. Open tennis championships, Sunday, Sept. 4, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

We have now reached the Quarter-finals of the 2022 US Open, which means only eight men and eight women have a chance of capturing the crown in Flushing Meadows. 

On the men’s side, only one American remains (Frances Tiafoe), while the women’s side features both Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff. While all of the Americans left are technically underdogs, this year marks the best chance since Sloane Stephens won in 2017 that an American can be victorious at the US Open. 

It’s a relatively wide-open field on both sides as multiple top seeds have already been eliminated, so today we’re going to look at the current betting odds and see if we can identify as best bets when it comes to who will win the US Open. 

2022 US Open Men’s Odds

Player Odds to Win US Open
Nick Kyrgios

+150

Carlos Alcaraz +200
Jannik Sinner +550
Matteo Berrettini +1200
Casper Ruud  +1200
Frances Tiafoe +1400
Andrey Rublev +1400
Karen Khachanov +2500

Even before Frances Tiafoe knocked Rafael Nadal out of the US Open, Nick Kyrgios had emerged as the betting favorite to win the event. He made his first ever Grand Slam final at Wimbledon and has been playing pretty dominant tennis in Flushing Meadows thanks to a renewed focus on the mental side of the game and a more mature approach to his preparation. 

Kyrgios currently leads the US Open with 85 aces through his first four matches. That’s 14 more than the next best player, Marin Cilic, who was just eliminated on Monday night. Kyrgios has also hit 196 winners and 23% of his shots have been winners, which is more than anybody else remaining on the men’s side. 

Interestingly, the other player who stands out when it comes to winners and aces is Matteo Berrettini. The Italian has hit 207 winners, more than anybody else remaining in the tournament, and has 63 aces, which is second of the remaining men. He also only has eight double faults, which is the best of the remaining players. 

The issue for Berrettini is that 18% of his groundstrokes have been unforced errors, tied with Carlos Alcaraz for most of the remaining players. It could also derail Tuesday’s match against Casper Ruud, who is ranked ahead of Berrettini but is not as comfortable on hardcourts as the Italian. 

American Frances Tiafoe also has an intriguing case for winning the 2022 US Open. First of all, he just defeated one of the greatest players ever in the men’s game. He’s also 3rd of the remaining players in the total number of winners, 3rd in aces, and 2nd in return winners. Tiafoe will need to play the best tennis of his career to pull it off, but he has the aggressive style and court coverage to be a threat. 

Best Bet: It’s hard to argue against Kyrgios as the best bet given the way that he’s playing. However, Carlos Alcaraz is one of the best young players in tennis and can become the world’s number one ranked player if he makes the finals, so he has extra motivation. If you’re looking for a longer shot, Matteo Berrettini has a few characteristics we look for in a betting favorite here, but he has also been playing really inconsistent tennis, so it’s hard to have much faith in him to advance past Ruud, let alone farther. 

2022 US Open Women’s Odds

Player Odds to Win US Open
Iga Swiatek

+200

Caroline Garcia +400
Coco Gauff +500
Ons Jabeur +700
Aryna Sabalenka +800
Jessica Pegula +900
Karolina Pliskova +900
Ajla Tomljanovic +1400

The women’s side of the US Open is a little bit more chaotic. The easy money would seem to be an Iga Swiatek since she’s the number one player in the world and won the French Open earlier in the summer. However, the Polish star hasn’t been playing her best tennis in the US Open, almost losing to 108th-ranked Julie Niemeier in the round of 16.

Swiatek is the best returner left in the match, winning an astounding 57% of her return game. On the other hand, doesn’t have an overly powerful game and has also hit the second fewest number of winners and the most unforced errors of any woman left in the draw. 

On the other end of the spectrum, Caroline Garcia is playing the best tennis of anybody left. She has the highest percentage of winners (26% of her groundstrokes) and the second-most aces with 26 in her four matches. She’s won 77% of her first serve points, has the second-most return winners, and hasn’t lost a set in the 2022 US Open, but she has never advanced beyond the quarter-final in any Grand Slam. 

She will get a stiff test on Tuesday night against Coco Gauff as the young American continues her deepest run in the US Open. While she’s a fan favorite, she faces an uphill battle to win the tournament. In addition to facing a woman who’s on a roll, Gauff is just middle-of-the-pack when it comes to her serve and groundstroke performance so far in the tournament. 

A potential longshot option is Karolina Pliskova. She’s a former world number one who has reached multiple Grand Slam finals in her career, so the moment won’t be too big for her. Pliskova leads the remaining players in aces with 35 but has also broken serve in 45% of her return games, up from her season average of 31.2%, which makes her a real threat to take the title. 

Best Bets: Despite Swiatek being the highest seed, I think Garcia is the best bet of anybody remaining. Her level of tennis has just been really good so far. If you are looking for a long-shot, Pliskova could also be worth a small bet. 

For more US Open coverage, visit amNY Sports

Caroline Garcia at the US Open
Caroline Garcia, of France, reacts during a match against Bianca Andreescu, of Canada, during the third round of the U.S. Open tennis championships, Friday, Sept. 2, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)

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