Why did Zohran Mamdani shock the world by beating Andrew Cuomo and eight others in the Democratic mayoral primary? It comes down to a famous, four-word phrase the noted Democratic political strategist James Carville coined three decades ago.
“It’s the economy, stupid!”
Mamdani’s message was simple, and it resonated with Democratic voters across the Big Apple: The rent is too damn high, freeze it. The groceries are too expensive, let’s lower the cost. The buses are too slow, let’s make them free. And we’ll tax the rich to make them so.
The truth is, the climate was ripe for a candidate like Mamdani to come along and win with his “it’s the economy” message. Nothing else seemed to matter to the voters — not his support for the pro-Palestine cause, or his naive outlook on the inflammatory rhetoric used, or his lack of experience in government.
Whether Mamdani is elected mayor in November is still uncertain; he will face formidable challenges from independent Mayor Eric Adams, Republican Curtis Sliwa, and possibly another independent bid from Cuomo. The only realistic challenge to Mamdani would be two of these three candidates coming off the ballot.
Whether Mamdani, if elected, can fulfill his lofty economic goals without causing unintended, harmful consequences (an exodus in the wealthy and middle class tax bases, for example) is also a big question in a city where successful mayors must navigate a phalanx of special interests (unions, lobbyists, developers, etc.) to get things done.
What is certain, however, is that Mamdani’s message hit home with many New Yorkers who live paycheck-to-paycheck, some working multiple jobs at a time, just to have the basics: A roof over their heads, clothes on their backs, food on their tables. For too many, the costs are so high that there is no room to breathe, save for the future, or enjoy life in the big city.
Our city is currently in the biggest affordability crisis in its history. The vacancy rate is at a historic low, and rents are at historic highs. Wages have risen, but not enough to meet the rising costs of living in this, one of the most expensive places in America. Inflation in recent years took an even bigger bite out of everyone’s budgets, and the recovery from that has not made much of a difference.
The only thing that mattered in the 2025 Democratic primary was the perilous state of the city’s economy, and Mamdani made promises that energized voters — and which he must now work hard to fulfill if he is elected in November as the city’s 111th mayor.
And that’s the larger lesson, in a sense, for the Democratic Party as it still licks its wounds in the second Trump term.
What’s the path to victory this year and beyond? It’s the economy, stupid. Nothing else matters if people can’t afford to pay the rent.
