Queens Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani appears to be gaining ground on former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the crowded Democratic primary to replace Mayor Eric Adams, a new Emerson College/Pix11/The Hill poll revealed on Wednesday.
The survey of 606 Democratic primary voters, conducted during May 23-26, has Cuomo nabbing 35% of the vote to Mamdani’s 23% in the first round of ranked-choice — a 12 point difference between the first and second place candidates. But while the poll’s ranked-choice simulation has Cuomo winning in the 10th round with 54%, Mamdani is only eight points behind with 46%.
Mayor Adams was not part of the survey, as he opted out of the primary to run in the November general election instead as an independent.
The poll shows Mamdani significantly narrowing the gap between himself and Cuomo compared to a string of other recent surveys. It also comes after Mamdani released an internal poll on Tuesday that showed him performing better in the first round, 27% to Cuomo’s 40%, in the first round.
“Cuomo has led in the polls since early 2025, but Mamdani has surged, gaining 23 points and winning second-choice votes nearly 2-to-1, cutting Cuomo’s ranked-choice lead from 12 points to 9 points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement. Kimball was comparing Mamdani’s performance in Wednesday’s poll with how he fared in a February Emerson survey, before Cuomo officially entered the race.
“With four weeks to go, the question is whether Cuomo can run out the clock, or if he needs to win over second-choice voters to hold off Mamdani’s momentum,” he added.
Kimball said Cuomo’s strongest support comes from Black voters (74%), those over 50 (66%), and women (58% to 42%); Mamdani is strongest among voters under 50 (61%), white voters (57% to 43%), and those who are college-educated (58% to 42%).
The poll comes after Cuomo and Mamdani, along with several other candidates, have been airing TV ads for weeks. Mamdani’s ads have focused on introducing himself and his vision to voters while casting Cuomo as corrupt and beholden to moneyed interests over working people.
Cuomo’s ads, meanwhile, have touted his record as a get-things-done governor prior to his resignation while painting the city as being in crisis and at a crossroads.
Campaigns’ takes
The Mamdani campaign was quick to celebrate the survey results, saying they show that Cuomo has “hit his ceiling, while we’re nowhere near ours.”
“In just a few weeks, we will defeat the disgraced ex-governor and send him back to the suburbs,” the campaign said in a statement. “As the race enters the final stretch, our campaign will leverage an unprecedented field operation—which has knocked on more than 600,000 doors with over 25,000 volunteers—to bring our vision for a rent freeze, fast and free buses, cheaper groceries and universal childcare to as many New Yorkers as possible and win a city that everyone can afford to call home.”
Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said the poll “appears to be an outlier,” referencing other recent surveys where Cuomo led Mamdani by at least 19 points in the first round and broke 50% in the fifth.
“The facts across the board remain the same — Andrew Cuomo is the consistent and overwhelming frontrunner in this race,” Azzopardi said in a statement. “That’s because New Yorkers know he is the only candidate in this race with the executive experience and the proven record of results to fix what’s broken and put this city back on the right track after 12 years of failed leadership.”
Coming behind Cuomo and Mamdani in the first round are city Comptroller Brad Lander (11%), his predecessor Scott Stringer (10%), City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (8%), and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie (5%). Lander is eliminated in the ninth round of ranked choice with 22%, while Stringer makes it to eigth round with 13%, and Speaker Adams to the seventh round with 10%.
The poll also asked voters about the preferences in a potential general election matchup that includes Cuomo as the Democratic candidate, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa as the Republican, and Adams and attorney Jim Walden as independents. It has Cuomo winning with a 44% plurality, Sliwa comes in second at 13%, Adams third at 10%, and Walden last at 7% with 26% undecided.
