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NYC’s new development activity normalizes as prices rise

Olympia Dumbo

CONDO CONTRACT ACTIVITY MATCHES PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS, BUT PRICES ARE INCREASING

New York City’s new developments reported 313 sponsor contracts in January 2022, representing a 13% decrease from the month prior yet comparable to the 320 deals reported in January 2020 (pre-pandemic). This trend is also evident when analyzing market performance in the individual boroughs. Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens all saw nearly identical contract activity in the first month of 2022 against that of 2020.

While there was an 8% decrease in median price per square foot and a 12% decrease in median unit price against December 2021, the year-over-year analysis paints a different picture. January 2022 saw a 16% increase in median price per square foot and a 31% increase in median unit price when compared with the same period pre-pandemic.

As the quarter progresses, Marketproof is also keeping an eye on discounting trends, which are showing a 4.85% discount so far this quarter, a 1.04% decrease from Q4 2021. We are also watching performance in FiDi after several new developments – One Wall Street, 130 William, 25 Park Row and the Broad Exchange Building – posted strong numbers in January. This may indicate the start of recovery for commercial hubs, namely FiDi and Midtown, which did not see the same gains as other Manhattan neighborhoods did in 2021.

“For anyone who has been following the narrative of New York Citys’ residential recovery, January 2022 begins the sequel,” said Kael Goodman, co-founder and CEO of Marketproof, Inc. “After the record highs of last year, contract activity appears to be leveling off in 2022 but with the addition of a new norm: high prices. It will be interesting to see how these emerging pricing trends affect contract behavior alongside rising inflation and if Q1 will officially put buyers back in the driver seat.”


MANHATTAN

Manhattan new developments reported 150 sponsor contracts in January, a 26% decrease from the prior month, yet on par with January 2020’s 149 deals. Aggregate pricing was also down from December: approximately $760M in contracts, representing a 28% decrease from the $1.06B recorded in December. Year over year, median pricing is up across the board, with a 16% increase in price per square foot and an impressive 31% increase in unit price.

January’s top contracts were spread throughout the borough, showing continued demand for larger, trophy units and four-plus-bedroom residences. The most expensive contract was signed at 200 Amsterdam for a 37th floor five-bedroom residence last asking $21.5M.

This month also saw notable re-sale activity on Billionaire’s Row: a $188M closing at 220 Central Park South and the first re-sale listing at Central Park Tower for which the seller is targeting a 34% price increase.

MANHATTAN PROJECT UPDATES

MANHATTAN PERFORMANCE

Number of Contracts

  • 105 contracts reported
  • -26.11% from prior month in 2021
  • +60% from Jan 2021 and +1% from Jan 2020

Volume & Pricing

  • $515M aggregate dollar volume
  • $2.43M median unit price (+7.63% from Jan 2021)
  • $2,117 median ppsf (-4.93% from Jan 2021)

MANHATTAN TOP 3S

Top Contracts

  • 200 Amsterdam unit 37A last asking $21.5M (5 beds, 5.5 baths)
  • 109 East 79th Street unit 15W last asking $16.95M (5 beds, 5.5 baths)
  • 15 Hudson Yards PH 81A last asking $13.74M (4 beds, 4.5 baths)

Top Closings

  • Central Park Tower Unit 124 sold for $46,958,752 (29% discount)
  • Puck Building (295 Lafayette Street) PH sold for $35M
  • Central Park Tower Unit 66E sold for $19,804,250

Top Buildings

  • One Wall Street – 7 contracts
  • Greenwich West – 7 contracts
  • One Manhattan Square – 7 contracts

BROOKLYN

Brooklyn was the only borough to see more sponsor contracts in January than December, albeit only a 1.55% increase with 131 deals. This shows Brooklyn contract levels holding steady into the New Year and when compared to the 129 deals reported during the same period in 2020.

Price gains also appear persistent in Brooklyn compared to the prior month and against January 2020. The only metric not trending upward was monthly median unit price, which was unchanged from December 2021 at $195M. In contrast, the median price increased 33% year over year.

Olympia Dumbo (30 Front Street) reported 6 contracts in January and achieved the borough’s top 3 contracts for the month. Marketproof broke the news in September that Fortis Property Group is angling for new price records in the borough, based on our analysis of the stacking plan, and the success of sales thus far indicates they might be on track to reach that goal (if contracts close for the asking ppsf). Douglas Elliman’s Eklund Gomes Team and Sotheby’s Heyman Team listed PHB in January for $19.5M, reflecting a 26% increase from the initial offering price of $15.5M.

  • Compass launched sales at The Narrows (9956 3 Avenue) in Fort Hamilton, with asking prices for the 40 units ranging from $679K to $1.35M.

BROOKLYN PERFORMANCE

Number of Contracts

  • 131 contracts reported
  • +1.55% from prior month in 2021
  • +8% from Jan 2021 and -6% from Jan 2020

Volume & Pricing

  • $213.2M aggregate dollar volume
  • $1.195M median unit price (+35% from Jan 2021)
  • $1,346 median ppsf (+31% from Jan 2021)

BROOKLYN TOP 3S

Top Contracts

  • Olympia Dumbo unit 31A last asking $8.025M (4 beds, 3.5 baths)
  • Olympia Dumbo unit 30A last asking $7.995M (4 beds, 3.5 baths)
  • Olympia Dumbo unit 20A last asking $5.2M (3 beds, 3.5 baths)

Top Closings

  • One Prospect Park West unit 8A sold for $5.975M
  • One Clinton (1 Clinton Street) unit 26A sold for $4.85M (representing a 13% discount)
  • One Clinton (1 Clinton Street) unit 32A sold for $4.8M (representing a 5% discount)

Top Buildings

  • Nx (215 North 10th Street) – 7 contracts
  • 98 Front – 7 contracts
  • Olympia Dumbo – 6 contracts
  • 11 Hoyt – 6 contracts

QUEENS

With 32 sponsor contracts reported in January, Queens saw the greatest monthly decrease of the three boroughs, with 32% fewer deals. The same period in 2020 also saw 32 contracts. The aggregate asking price of contracts signed in January 2022 was up 4% from the same period pre-pandemic and median price per square foot was up 1%, while median unit price was down 11%.

The month’s top 3 priciest deals were reported at Long Island City new developments and on the heels of Skyline Tower reporting a stagger 188 contracts in 2021, potentially the most of any development in the city, it appears this neighborhood – once said to be over-saturated with condo inventory – is now picking up steam.

QUEENS NEW PROJECTS

  • Modern Spaces launched sales at Anable (10-64 Jackson Avenue) in Long Island City with asking prices for the 22 units ranging from $745K to $2.13M.

QUEENS PERFORMANCE

Number of Contracts

  • 32 contracts reported
  • -31.91% from prior month in 2021
  • -29%% from Jan 2021 and unchanged from Jan 2020

Volume & Pricing

  • $31.4M aggregate dollar volume
  • $800K median unit price (-5% from Jan 2021)
  • $1,253 median ppsf (unchanged from Jan 2021)

QUEENS TOP 3S

Top Contracts

  • Galerie (2218 Jackson Ave) PH13 last asking $2.495M (3 beds, 2.5 baths)
  • 5 Court Square West unit 10F last asking $2.250M (3 beds, 3 baths)
  • Skyline Tower (3 Court Square) unit 5502 last asking $1.945M (2 beds, 2 baths)

Top Closings

  • Skyline Tower (3 Court Square) unit 4901 sold for $1.76M
  • Skyline Tower (3 Court Square) unit 4101 sold for $1.754M (representing a 2% price increase)
  • The Rowan (21-21 31st Street) unit 5D sold for $1.73M (representing a 1.8% price increase)

Top Buildings

  • Skyline Tower – 7 contracts
  • Blvd Queens – 4 contracts
  • The Mirella – 3 contracts

Report Methodology

  • Report is based on reported contracts and may not represent all contracts signed
  • Prices are based on the last asking price before a unit was put into contract
  • New development contracts are sponsor stage (sponsor controlled) projects that are eligible to sell units
  • Data as of 2/1/2022

Rendering of Olympia Dumbo courtesy of March

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