With just under six weeks until the Nov. 4 general election, and a little over four weeks until early voting starts, the New York City mayor’s race is in somewhat of a holding pattern.
Democratic mayoral nominee and frontrunner Zohran Mamdani continues to lead in the polls by double digits, dominating a crowded field of opponents who are splitting the vote three ways.
Two of those contenders, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, both Democrats running on independent lines, have desperately attempted to chip away at Mamdani’s lead through an endless barrage of attacks, to no avail. What was shaping up to be a potential November nail-biter is now looking like a fait accompli, according to some experts.
“Zohran is heavily likely to win in November; he has not made any mistakes this general election,” Democratic strategist Trip Yang told amNewYork. “Zohran’s numbers are like Teflon; no matter how many ill-intentioned attacks from his opponents, his favorables are still really high.”
Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist Assembly member, has maintained strong favorability ratings, above 40%, following weeks of negative attacks by Cuomo and Adams.
The two independents have slammed Mamdani over his lack of executive experience, past criticisms of the NYPD, support for decriminalizing sex work, and what they deem to be an unrealistic affordability platform. They have also tried to paint the Democratic nominee as inauthentic due to his efforts to distance himself from far-left positions he strongly embraced before running for mayor.
Yet, Yang says those attacks have had little impact, given that they are coming from Cuomo and Adams — both of whom are highly disliked by the electorate, according to recent polls. He added that voters are willing to give Mamdani grace in pivoting on some of his stances because they view him favorably.
“Mudslinging from someone who is disliked is not effective,” Yang said. “When voters like a candidate, for example Zohran…they will give candidates leeway to shift with nuance on some positions.”
What could possibly derail Mamdani?
Tusk Strategies CEO Chris Coffey said the only way for the race’s dynamics to truly change at this point is if it becomes one-on-one with Mamdani or some kind of seismic event takes place.
With both Adams and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa refusing to drop out, despite reports that Adams has at least flirted with the notion, Coffey said there is little chance of the race narrowing down to two candidates.
Furthermore, a contest-shifting event — such as an unforeseen manmade or natural catastrophe — while possible, is highly unlikely.
“Things happen that change the outcome of the race, but once you’re in that territory, you’re in the ‘I need something drastically different to change the outcome of this race territory,'” said Coffey, who assisted on Cuomo’s campaign during the primary. “You would need the race to really change in order for Zohran Mamdani to not win the race.”
Meanwhile, Mamdani has also finally begun to consolidate support from the Democratic Party establishment for his bid in recent days. The shift follows several key Democratic figures spending much of the summer deliberating over whether or not to support him.
Most notable among those who have thrown in with Mamdani in recent days is Gov. Kathy Hochul, a centrist running for reelection herself next year.
Hochul praised Mamdani as the candidate best positioned to fight President Trump’s immigration crackdown and social safety net cuts. But she also repeatedly noted they have many disagreements.
The governor’s endorsement appeared to spur Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie to also back Mamdani last week. State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins endorsed Mamdani soon after his primary win and campaigned with him in Manhattan last Friday.
U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have remained on the sidelines — although the New York Post reported over the weekend that Jeffries is in talks with Mamdani about a forthcoming endorsement.
