With the MLB season entering the home stretch, the Rookie of the Year races are starting to come into focus.
Like most MLB futures, the field can be crowded at the beginning of the year with names like Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., Spencer Torkelson, Reid Detmers, and many more vying for our attention.
However, with just over a month to go, the Vegas odds make it seem as though both races are pretty cut-and-dry. We’ll dive into the up-to-date odds below and tell you where we’d be placing our money when betting on either Rookie of the Year race.
AL Rookie of the Year
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners (-350)
As you can see from the odds, Julio Rodriguez basically as the AL Rookie of the Year locked up, and it’s hard to argue against it. He is the fastest player in MLB history to hit 15 home runs and steal 20 bases; he needed just 81 games to do so. On the season, he’s hitting .274/.332/.474 on the season with 19 home runs, 63 RBI, 62 runs, and 23 stolen bases.
He missed the first two weeks of August which seemed to open up a narrative that somebody else could sneak in and steal the award, but he’s come back hitting well and it just seems almost impossible for him to lose this unless he got hurt again.
Still, at -350, you’re not really getting any incentive to bet on this. You’d have to bet $350 just to win $100, and it’s just not worth it.
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles (+280)
Rutschman would be the only player who could have stolen the award had Rodriguez’s injury lingered. The Baltimore catcher started slow, like Rodriguez, but has hit .323/.463/.516 in 27 games during the second half with three home runs and 23 runs. On the season, he’s hitting .259/.366/.455 with eight home runs, 48 runs, and 25 RBI, which is great for a rookie but not enough to push past Rodriguez.
Jose Miranda, Minnesota Twins (+8500)
Jose Miranda is also not going to win the award, but he deserves to be recognized for his second-half production where he has hit .333/.387/.510 with five home runs, 21 RBI, and 15 runs in 26 games. On the season, he’s hitting .280/.327/.467 with 13 home runs, 53 RBI, and 31 runs and is another great example of a rookie who started off slowly, and was actually demoted, but ultimately showed that he belongs.
NL Rookie of the Year
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (-145)
Of all the names that had been potential NL Rookie of the Year winners (Seiya Suzuki, Oneil Cruz, Hunter Greene Nolan Gorman), the race comes down to two teammates who nobody thought would be in contention. Spencer Strider started out the year as a multi-inning relief pitcher before the Braves stretched him out to join the rotation and he’s been electric.
On the season, he’s 7-4 with a 2.95 ERA (supported by a 2.50xFIP), a 1.02 WHIP, and a dynamic 28.1% strikeout minus walk rate. Pretty impressive for a 23-year-old that was on nobody’s radar coming into the year. He’s also thrown 100.2 innings so far on the season, which gives him a leg up on his teammate, who has been impressive but in far less time.
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves (-105)
Michael Harris II wasn’t even in the big leagues until the end of May. In fact, he wasn’t even in Triple-A since he had never played an inning above Double-A in the Braves organization. Yet, he has produced since the second he was promoted.
On the season, Harris is hitting .286/.328/.505 with 13 home runs, 43 RBI, 50 runs, and 15 stolen bases. His 4.5% walk rate leaves a little to be desired, but he is producing consistently with the bat and bringing elite CF defense to his resume as well as a legitimate five-tool star.
One important aspect to consider is that the Rookie of the Year awards tend to favor hitters. Only one of the last ten AL Rookie of the year winners and three of the last 10 NL Rookie of the Year winners have been pitchers and two of those were legitimate Hall of Fame caliber arms (Jacob deGrom and Jose Fernandez).
Since one or two bad starts could make Spencer Strider’s numbers look less enticing, I think Michael Harris II may, perhaps unfairly, have the leg up here when thinking about who will take home the NL Rookie of the Year. You can make a strong case for either teammate, but if I was going to place my money down, I’d do it on Harris.
The Braves also just locked up Harris to an eight-year deal, which means Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Spencer Strider are also signed to long-term affordable deals. Something that certainly has Mets fans concerned.
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