Earlier in the NFL offseason, we took a look at the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. At the time, the New York Jets had two of the top five candidates to win the award, but a lot has changed in just two months.
Since NFL training camps have gotten underway and two weeks of preseason action has taken place, there has been a pretty seismic shift in the odds for the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Jets running back Breece Hall, the frontrunner for the award back in June, has now fallen to the 5th-best odds, while his teammate, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, who had been 5th now has the 15th-best odds.
So does this massive shift in odds open up any attractive betting opportunities for us? We’ll look at Hall and Wilson’s chances to capture the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, as well as the cases for the trending new names as well. If you feel inclined to tail any of our bets, use our sportsbook promo codes for the chance to get even more money.
Breece Hall, RB New York Jets (+1200)
Let’s start with Hall. Back in June, we mentioned that Hall was tremendous in college, rushing for 1,572 yards and 21 touchdowns as a sophomore and then following that up with 1,472 yards and 20 touchdowns rushing as a junior. He also added 302 receiving yards last year and three touchdowns to give him 1,774 yards from scrimmage.
There was some skepticism about how much the Jets would use Hall since true bell-cow runningbacks are increasingly rare in the modern NFL, and the Jets have Michael Carter, who showed flashes of talent in his rookie season last year. However, early preseason action has shown that the Jets are willing to use Hall both between the tackles and in the passing game, which increases the chances of him putting together a meaningful statistical season.
We also mentioned in June that only three of the last 19 winners of the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year have been wide receivers. Of course, one of them was last year with Ja’Marr Chase; however, there have been ten quarterbacks and six running backs awarded, which means that Hall, as the likely top rookie running back does have a pretty good chance to capture the award. We know just get him at way more favorable odds, which makes him an enticing bet since betting $100 could earn you $1,200 profit if he takes home the trophy.
George Pickens, WR Pittsburgh Steelers (+900)
Pickens was way down on the list when we first ran our discussion of the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, but his strong training camp and preseason have thrust him to the top of the list. The wide receiver was the 52nd overall pick in the draft, but there was some concern about his quarterback situation and his playing time and targets alongside Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and running back Najee Harris, who is very active in the passing game.
Personally, I think we may be reading too much into preseason by bumping Pickens up this high. Yes, he has played more than Chase Claypool in the preseason, but we have no idea if that will continue. We also still have questions about his quarterback play (more on that later), and wide receivers winning this award have been rare of late. Pickens has all kinds of talent, and could very well have a strong season, but I don’t think he’s my favorite bet on the board.
Kenny Pickett, QB Pittsburgh Steelers (+900)
Speaking of Pickens’ quarterback play, Kenny Pickett has used a strong preseason to launch himself into a tie atop the Vegas sportsbooks. Part of that makes sense. Pickett was the first quarterback drafted this year, and quarterbacks are the most likely winners of the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. If Pickett were to beat out Mitchell Trubisky, an outcome that is not as unlikely as it seemed a few weeks ago, then he would position himself as a clear frontrunner for the award given his position and talented supporting cast.
As it stands, that makes me more likely to bet on Kenny Pickett than George Pickens; however, I still have my concerns about how consistent Pickett will be, so I like a bet on Breece Hall more.
Chris Olave, WR New Orleans Saints (+1000), Drake London, WR Atlanta Falcons (+1400), Garrett Wilson, WR New York Jets (+2000)
After George Pickens, there are a host of wide receivers who could be in contention for the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Drake London previously had the best odds as the first receiver off the board and a surefire starting spot in the Falcons’ offense, but a knee injury in week one has led to him sitting out practices and caused his odds to dip.
I actually think that opens up a buying opportunity on London, who has immense talent and could be force-fed targets in an offense that has nothing besides Kyle Pitts. However, London has quarterback concerns of his own.
Chris Olave is another receiver who has seen his stock rise thanks to a strong start to the preseason. He “turned heads” in joint practices against the Packers and has been active in preseason games and practices as Michael Thomas sits out with a hamstring injury. Olave also has Jameis Winston as his quarterback, and Winston consistently leads the NFL in air yards, which is great for a receiver with Olave’s deep speed.
Yet, Michael Thomas will eventually return and Alvin Kamara will be active in the passing game as well, so I can’t get on board with Olave being a better bet for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year than London.
However, I do think both are better bets than Garrett Wilson, who has seen his chances to win this award drop. Back in June, I mentioned that Zach Wilson’s performance could hold the young wide receiver back as could the presence of second-year receiver Elijah Moore, who has been operating as the Jets’ top option in the passing attack.
Dameon Pierce, RB Houston Texans (+1600)
If you’re looking for a dark horse running back to take home the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, then Dameon Pierce is your man. The rookie was tremendous against the Saints in the first preseason game, showing “balance and the acceleration needed to succeed as an NFL back.” He then didn’t play in Week 2, which would suggest that he has already secured himself a key role in the Texans’ offense alongside, or ahead of, Marlon Mack. If Pierce were to assume a bell-cow role, he could put together a strong enough statistical season to challenge for the award.
Desmond Ridder, QB Atlanta Falcons (+2500)
The final longshot bet is on another quarterback, since we’ve discussed that quarterbacks are most likely to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The only other rookie quarterback who appears likely to get snaps for his team would be Desmond Ridder, who has looked strong throughout the preseason.
The rookie from Cincinnati was expected to sit behind Marcus Mariota for much of the season, but Mariota has lost a starting job once before, and Ridder is certainly pushing him right now. The Falcons don’t have much to play for and will not want to rush Ridder’s development, which means it’s unlikely he starts right out of the gate, but it’s entirely possible that he plays as many games as Kenny Pickett does in 2022 and his rushing upside could give him a chance to steal this award.
It’s not likely, but that’s why the odds are what they are. If you’re interested in placing a small bet on a longshot pick, I think Ridder could be your guy.