College football best bets, picks for Week 12

Last week, we went 3-1 in our college football bets after going 11-5 during the month, which means we’re sitting at 14-6 over the last five weeks, which ain’t so bad. We’ll be looking to keep that going this week.

There are plenty of strong betting games on this slate, and below are my college football best bets for Week 12.

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Navy vs UCF

Saturday, November 19th at 11:00 on ESPN2

We hit Navy +17 last week against Notre Dame, so there’s no reason not to go back to it here.

The same logic applies. As I wrote last week, “We’ve all seen Navy play before, so we know that basically no team in the country runs as much as Navy does. That means Navy should be able to string a few good drives together and bleed the clock, and that’s what we’re counting on here.”

UCF is the better overall team, but this is an early kickoff after a huge road win, so it’s a prime letdown spot against a unique triple-option offense. Plus, UCF also has a really strong run game, and Navy, as we discussed last week, is a pretty good defense against the run. That means we could see a lot of ground-and-pound to run this clock down.

Navy is 5-0 against the spread on the road this season, and it’s because of the unique style of their offense and the short duration of their games. I have no problem backing them against this high a spread.

Best Bet: NAVY +16.5 | FanDuel (-110)

Vanderbilt vs. Florida

Saturday, November 19th at 12:00 on SEC Network

This pick is a little bit about not being fully in on Florida and also about Vanderbilt being better than this line.

First of all, Florida has Florida State next week, and you know they are looking ahead to that rivalry showdown, but I also think Florida is just not a consistent football team. Anthony Richardson flashes at times, but this team has not been particularly good at throwing the football week in and week out. That could be a problem against a rather solid Vanderbilt run defense.

The Commodores are also coming off of a 24-21 win on the road against Kentucky and lost to a solid South Carolina squad by 11 the week before, so they’re not getting blown out unless they face the cream of the crop in the SEC. I think this spread is too high.

As of this writing, you can get Vandy +14.5 on FanDuel (-118)

Best Bet: VANDY +14 | BetMGM (-110)

Louisiana Tech vs. Charlotte

Saturday, November 12th at 3:30 on ESPN+

We had the over last week with Louisiana Tech and UTSA and it was our only loss. Louisiana Tech scored just seven points in a 51-7 loss and now they won’t have starting quarterback Parker McNeil, who has been electric for them.

However, these two defenses are, like, really bad. Lousiana Tech has allowed at least 24 points in each of their last five games and has allowed over 40 in four of those. Meanwhile, Charlotte has allowed at least 23 points in each of their last five and over 34 in three of those five.

I’d like this more if McNeil was playing, but I think these are two fine offenses going against two really poor defenses, so I like the over here.

Best Bet: LT/CHAR over 64.5 | DraftKings or BetMGM (-110)

Arkansas vs Mississippi

Saturday, November 19th at 7:30 on SEC Network

We were on Arkansas +3.5 last week and that worked out for us, so we’ll go back to the well here. The Razorbacks have lost five of their last seven games after a 3-0 start, but they are still playing for bowl eligibility, which will be a big motivating factor here.

They were without quarterback KJ Jefferson in their loss last week, and two of their five losses have come with him sidelined. He practiced last week, so it seems like he is expected to play this week. Plus, Jefferson is from Mississippi and this offseason he mentioned he really wanted to beat the Mississippi teams, so there’s a little extra motivation here, which we like.

On the other side, Ole Miss’ defense has not played well on the road in SEC games play this year. They allowed Vanderbilt to score 28 points, which is the most points the Commodores have scored against a Power 5 opponent this season. The Rebels also gave up 73 combined points to LSU and Texas A&M in back-to-back weeks.

With Arkansas also looking for revenge after Ole Miss beat them 52-51 last season in a ranked matchup, there are just a lot of reasons for me to take the points with the Razorbacks here.

Best Bet: ARK +2.5| FanDuel (-106)