We’re heading into the home stretch of the NFL regular season and the 2022-23 Super Bowl odds are continuing to take shape. With no team emerging as a clear favorite, who should you be betting on to hoist the trophy in February?
After injuries and some mid-season struggles by a few of the top teams, we saw the field of potential winners enlarge only to shrink to the main four options again. However, below, I’ll show you the current odds and talk through some of the teams I think could be good bets, even including some longshot contenders.
Super Bowl Odds (as of December 6th)
| Team | Odds to win |
| Bills | +350 |
| Chiefs | +500 |
| Eagles | +500 |
| Cowboys | +700 |
| 49ers | +1200 |
| Bengals | +1200 |
| Bucs | +1800 |
| Vikings | +1800 |
| Dolphins | +2000 |
| Ravens | +2000 |
| Jets | +10000 |
| Giants | +15000 |
Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook, click here to see up-to-date odds.
Favorites
The Bills (+350) are back to being favorites now that they’ve taken back the top seed in the AFC. However, they are still managing key injuries to Von Miller and Micah Hyde, which has caused the defense to play a lot more reserves than they were hoping. There’s also the simple truth that these are the Bills, and we’ve yet to see them make the big plays in the playoffs to seal the deal. They are clearly one of the best teams in the league, but can they get over the hump?
Betting on the Chiefs (+500) always makes some sense as they have remained one of the best teams in the league with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes together. They haven’t missed a beat without Tyreek Hill and have the same record as the Bills; although, they did lose the head-to-head battle. If you want slightly friendlier odds, betting on the Chiefs makes some sense.
The Eagles (+500) were an early favorite when they went undefeated, and their path to the NFC championship game seems a little bit easier to predict with the NFC not having as many true contenders as the AFC. However, the Eagles have also been listed by numerous analytics sites as being one of the luckiest teams in the NFL based on turnover margin and opponents’ dropped passes and interceptions. I’d rather take the Chiefs at the same odds.
Contenders
The Cowboys (+700) and 49ers (+1200) are also contenders with the Eagles in the NFC; however, the 49ers saw their odds fall after Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a broken foot on Sunday.
I actually view this as a buying opportunity for San Francisco. They were not a Super Bowl favorite because of their quarterback. They were a contender because of their defense, running game, and playmaking weapons. Those still exist. I expect the 49ers to bring in a veteran to compete with Brock Purdy, and all they need is a game manager under center to guide this team deep into the postseason. At these odds, it could be worth a small bet.
The Bengals (+1200) announced themselves as Super Bowl contenders again on Sunday by beating the Chiefs for the 3rd time in a row, including the postseason. With Ja’Marr Chase back in action and Cincinnati just one game behind the Bills and Chiefs, it’s plausible that the Bengals actually end up with the AFC’s top seed. We’ve seen this team compete in the playoffs, and it’s not out of the question to see them do it again, but I do think their defense will prevent them from overcoming the Chiefs and Bills.
Dark Horse
Winning football games is about skill and also luck, and right now it seems like all the bounces are going the Vikings (+1800) way. They currently sit 10-2 and just one game behind the Eagles for the NFC’s top seed. You may watch them and think “How did they win that game?” but they just keep winning games. They have talent on defense and Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook on offense, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get hot and reach the Super Bowl. Could be worth a small bet with those odds.
The Dolphins (+2000) are the other dark-horse Super Bowl team to mention. This team is absolutely moving in the right direction and has a scary offense with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. I realistically think they’re another year or two away from being true contenders because they need to shore up their offensive line and defense, but we’ve seen dynamic offenses carry teams deep into the postseason before. Don’t bet a lot, but maybe a little just for the possibility of a big hit.
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