The question posed by this Sunday night’s Tony Awards is not whether “Hamilton” will win best musical (it will, and deservedly so), or whether it will a ton of awards (it will, and deservedly so), but whether some other worthy musicals can step out of the hip-hop musical’s shadow and snag an award or two.
“Hamilton” received 16 nominations in 13 different categories, so it would need a clean sweep of all 13 categories in order to break the record held by “The Producers,” which won 12 Tony Awards in 2001. As extraordinary and groundbreaking as “Hamilton” is, a sweep is unlikely to occur.
In addition to best musical, “Hamilton” will surely win for direction (Thomas Kail), score (Lin-Manuel Miranda), book (Miranda), orchestrations (Alex Lacamoire), featured actress (Renee Elise Goldsberry), and featured actor (Daveed Diggs).
Best actress in a musical is likely to go to Cynthia Erivo (“The Color Purple”) over Phillipa Soo (“Hamilton”). But for the record, all five nominated actresses (also including Carmen Cusack for “Bright Star,” Laura Benanti for “She Loves Me” and Jessie Mueller for “Waitress”) are giving absolutely superb performances.
Considering that Miranda is already going to win for his score and book, voters may feel inclined to not give him best actor in a musical, too, but he could end up taking some votes away from his co-star Leslie Odom Jr., which would hand the award to Danny Burstein (“Fiddler on the Roof”), a beloved six-time Tony nominee. Then again, Idina Menzel won best actress in a musical for “Wicked” even while up against co-star Kristin Chenoweth in 2004, so Odom still has a strong chance at winning.
“Hamilton” could also miss out on awards for choreography and scenic and costume design, but it is sure to win at least eight or nine awards – not too shabby.
In terms of plays, Stephen Karam’s acclaimed drama “The Humans” ought to pick up several awards including but not limited to best play, best featured actor (Reed Birney) and best featured actress (Jayne Houdyshell).
Best revival of a play is a tossup. Ivo van Hove’s avant-garde revival of “A View from the Bridge” is the strongest contender, but it closed a while ago, had some detractors (myself included) and could lose votes to Hove’s similarly experimental production of “The Crucible.” If so, the award could go to “Long Day’s Journey Into Night” or “Blackbird.”
The best revival of a musical category is an embarrassment of riches (“The Color Purple,” “Fiddler,” “Spring Awakening,” “She Loves Me”), but John Doyle’s pared-down take on “The Color Purple” ought to win the day. It’s one of the few revivals of a musical that is unquestionably superior to the original production.
Here’s who will win and who should win at Sunday’s Tony Awards.
Best play: “The Humans” will win. “Eclipsed” should win.
Best musical: “Hamilton” will win and should win.
Best revival of a play: “A View from the Bridge” will win. “Blackbird” should win.
Best revival of a musical: “The Color Purple” will win and should win.
Best book of a musical: “Hamilton” will win and should win.
Best original Score: “Hamilton” will win and should win.
Best performance by an actor in play: Frank Langella (“The Father”) will win and should win.
Best performance by an actress in play: Jessica Lange (“Long Day’s Journey Into Night”) will win and should win.
Best performance by an actor in a musical: Danny Burstein (“Fiddler on the Roof”) will win and should win.
Best performance by an actress in a musical: Cynthia Erivo (“The Color Purple”) will win and should win.
Best performance by a featured actor in a play: Reed Birney (“The Humans”) will win and should win.
Best peformance by a featured actress in a play: Jayne Houdyshell (“The Humans”) will win and should win.
Best performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical: Daveed Diggs (“Hamilton”) will win and should win.
Best performance by a featured actress in a musical: Renee Elise Goldsberry (“Hamilton”) will win and should win.
Best scenic design of a play: David Zinn (“The Humans”) will win and should win.
Best scenic design of a musical: David Rockwell (“She Loves Me”) will win. David Korins (“Hamilton”) should win.
Best costume design of a play: Jane Greenwood (“Long Day’s Journey into Night”) will win. Clint Ramos (“Eclipsed”) should win.
Best costume design of a musical: Paul Tazewell (“Hamilton”) will win and should win.
Best lighting design of a play: Justin Townsend (“The Humans”) will win and should win.
Best lighting design of a musical: Howell Brinkley (“Hamilton”) will win and should win.
Best direction of a play: Joe Mantello (“The Humans”) will win and should win.
Best direction of a musical: Thomas Kail (“Hamilton”) will win and should win.
Best choreography: Savion Glover (“Shuffle Along”) will win. Andy Blankenbuehler (“Hamilton”) should win.
Best orchestrations: “Hamilton” will win and should win.
