The 2025 NYC’s Mayor’s Race appears to be growing a little tighter with a week left before the big general election, according to a new public poll released Monday.
Independent former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s mayoral campaign is touting major gains on frontrunner Democrat Zohran Mamdani, citing a new Suffolk University poll of the Nov. 4 general election, published on Oct. 27, as evidence that “momentum is on our side.” The Suffolk survey has the former governor cutting Mamdani’s lead roughly in half compared its last poll in September, which had Cuomo at 25%, Mamdani at 45%, Sliwa at 9% and Mayor Eric Adams at 8%.
The latest poll of 500 likely general election voters, conducted from Oct. 23-26, shows Cuomo with 34% compared to the democratic socialist Mamdani’s 44%. Republican Curtis Sliwa comes in third at 11%, with the remaining vote divided among the other four candidates on the ballot (2%), those who are undecided (7%), and those who refuse to respond (2%). The margin of error in the poll is +/- 4.4%.
Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa continues to garner a fraction of the vote, and that could ultimately cost Cuomo the mayor’s seat.
The Oct. 27 survey appears to be consistent with other polls taken since Adams’ exit, showing that most of Cuomo’s boost may have come from Mayor Eric Adams’ exit from the race last month. Adams is still listed on the ballot even though he suspended his campaign and endorsed Cuomo last week.
Cuomo sees momentum, Mamdani sounds caution
Nevertheless, the Cuomo team said on Monday that the Suffolk University poll shows the tide is turning in their favor.
“Today’s Suffolk University poll shows exactly what we’re seeing on the ground: This is a two-man race, momentum is on our side, and the more New Yorkers learn about how dangerously inexperienced Zohran Mamdani is — and about his extremist agenda — the less they like what they see,” Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said in a statement.
Azzopardi added that Mamdani was in the same position that Cuomo is now during the Democratic primary, when the former governor was ahead before Mamdani defeated him in an upset on primary night.
The Cuomo spokesperson also referenced a Monday report in Gothamist on polling data, which indicated that voters 55 and older made up just over half of the 160,000-plus New Yorkers who cast early ballots over the weekend.
When Mamdani was asked about the story during a campaign stop on Monday, he told reporters he continues “to be confident in our campaign.” However, his campaign sent an email on Monday afternoon telling supporters, “[W]e cannot let complacency undo the work we’ve done,” while urging them to sign up to canvass and to vote.
Mamdani campaign spokesperson Dora Pekec, however, expressed confidence that New Yorkers were ready to “turn the page” on Cuomo.
“New Yorkers across this city are ready for change and we hope they’ll join our army of 90,000 volunteers and growing to keep talking to friends and neighbors and knocking on doors to win a city we can all afford,” Pekec said.
According to the poll, Cuomo’s most significant gain was with Hispanic voters, whom he now leads by 1%, compared to a 30% deficit he faced with them last month. Furthermore, he now leads with Independent voters by 10%, a big swing from being underwater with them by 18% in September.
But while the poll shows Cuomo and Mamdani with similar favorability levels, 42% to 46% respectively, the former governor has higher unfavorables than the Democratic nominee — 47% to 37%.
Pollster: Sliwa has ‘outsized impact on the outcome’
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center, said in a statement that the survey shows what Cuomo’s campaign has long argued: that Sliwa’s continued presence in the race is blocking him from overtaking Mamdani.
“There is one person in New York City whose voters could have an outsized impact on the outcome,” Paleologos said. “That person isn’t Mayor Eric Adams, U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, or any New York billionaire. It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa, whose voters hold the 11% blocking Cuomo from winning the race. And when asked for their second choice, those voters preferred Cuomo over Mamdani 36%-2%.”
Sliwa has continually resisted calls from Cuomo and other moderates to bow out of the race, implying that only his own death would result in his no longer running.
The Sliwa campaign has not yet responded to amNewYork requests for comment about the poll.
