FILE – New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) looks to pass against the Connecticut Sun in the first half during a WNBA basketball game, Saturday, May 7, 2022, in New York. The New York Liberty are a work in progress. When coach Sandy Brondello took over the team this year she knew that it would take some time for the players to gel on the court.
AP Photo/Adam Hunger, File
The 2023 WNBA season begins on Friday, May 19th after a busy offseason that saw the return of Brittney Griner and some blockbuster trades that have resulted in more excitement around the league than in recent memory.
The regular season has also been expanded to a record 40 games per team, and the Las Vegas Aces will attempt to become the first team to defend their title since 2001-2002.
As we talked about last month, this is really a two-team race for the title, as of now. The Las Vegas Aces kept nearly every piece of their championship team and then added yet another star in Candace Parker. Meanwhile, the Liberty signed two MVPs of their own, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, and added a veteran WNBA champion point guard in Courtney Vandersloot.
That has put both teams as the clear favorites heading into the season, but that doesn’t mean there still aren’t some great bets to make.
Phoenix Mercury center Brittney Griner speaks during the WNBA basketball teams’ media day, Wednesday, May 3, 2023, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)
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We’re not going to find any great betting odds for the WNBA Championship, which is why it makes sense to turn to team win totals. With win total bets, we can bet on whether or not a team will win more or fewer games than the sportsbooks currently have them projected for.
So what are some of our favorite win total bets?
WNBA Win Total Best Bets
New York Liberty OVER 29.5 wins
We already mentioned the names at the top of their roster (Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu, Courtney Vandersloot), but the Liberty might have the deepest roster in the league, which includes Betnijah Laney, WNBA All-Star and 2020 Most Improved Player.
That kind of depth, including fan-favorite Han Xu, who is a 6’10” center that can shoot from anywhere, makes the Liberty one of the safest bets because they have the talent up-and-down the roster to win games even if one of their stars has to miss time.
Connecticut Sun OVER 21.5 wins
The Sun were one of the best teams last season but saw Jonquel Jones, the 2021 WNBA MVP, leave for New York in a trade, and Jasmine Thomas also leave in a trade to Los Angeles. Still, they have two-time All-Star Brionna Jones, guard Natisha Hiedeman, and Tiffany Hayes, who was traded to the Sun from the Atlanta Dream for the No. 6 pick in the 2023 draft.
This is an older team but a talented one, and considering the Sun won 25 games in a 36 game season last year, betting on them to win 22 games now that the WNBA has 40 regular season games seems like a smash play.
Atlanta Dream OVER 18.5 wins
If you want an upstart team, look no further than the Dream, who have one of the best young coaches in the league in Tanisha Wright and the Rookie of the Year in Rhyne Howard. Add to that the 2023 6th overall pick Haley Jones and Allisha Gray, who was a starter for the Wings last year, averaging 13.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 33 minutes per game, and you have a team that should easily beat their 14 wins from last season.
Indiana Fever UNDER 10.5 wins
I know it seems weird to be the under on a team with such a low win total, but that’s where we’re at with a Fever team that is coming off a 5-31 season. They added Aliyah Boston with the first pick in the 2023 WNBA Draft, but despite her gaudy college numbers, she is really more of a complementary piece at this level. She will make Indiana better but not six wins better right away in her first season.
New York Liberty basketball player Courtney Vandersloot takes part in WNBA training camp in Brooklyn, N.Y., April 30, 2023. Vandersloot wasn’t sure whether she wanted to come to New York this season to play and solidify the incredible team that the Liberty were building. Coming to New York though would mean she’d be far away from her mom, Jan, who was diagnosed with advanced multiple myeloma cancer last July. (New York Liberty/Brandon Todd via AP)
