The smallest spread (-2.5 points) in the 2025 College Football Playoff Quarterfinals finds #5 Oregon Ducks battling #4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Capital One Orange Bowl at noon on Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026. Oregon dispatched #12 James Madison in the in the First Round, while Texas Tech received the last bye-round position in the postseason.
Oregon arrives at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida with a 12-1 record, their only blemish a 10-point loss to the then 7th-ranked Indiana Hoosiers. The Ducks have won several marquee matchups in 2025, including a double-overtime win at Penn State and two-point win on the road at Iowa. Dante Moore has the ability to send Oregon into the Semifinals.
Texas Tech lost a perfect season at unranked Arizona State in mid-December before rolling through the remaining Big 12 schedule, including handing the BYU Cougars their only two losses on the 2025 campaign. The Red Raiders third-ranked defense will look to stop Moore, while giving 1,000+ yard rusher Cameron Dickey a chance to find the endzone for the 15th time (or more) this season.
CFB Playoff Quarterfinals (Orange Bowl): #5 Oregon Ducks (12-1) @ #4 Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-1)
Kick Off: 12:00 p.m. ET (Thu., 01/01/26)
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Oregon brings a winning record against the spread (8-5) and over-under (7-6), while covering the moneyline is the majority of contests (12-1). Texas Tech matches that 12-1 record against the spread and the moneyline this season, while the over-under lines have resulted in a 5-8 record for the Red Raiders.
| Orange Bowl: #5 Oregon at #4 Texas Tech | |
| Spread | ORE -2.5 |
| Moneyline | ORE -134, TX TECH +114 |
| Over-Under Total | 51.5 points |
| Money Against the Spread | 57% ORE |
| Bets Against the Spread | 52% ORE |
| Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook | Odds are subject to change |
Texas Tech is listed as a slim favorite with a 52% chance to win on Thursday, according to ESPN Analytics.
Best Bet: Dante Moore 250+ Passing Yards
Dante Moore has been excellent for Oregon in 2025. The sophomore signal caller has passed for 3,046 yards, 28 touchdowns (to eight interceptions) while leading the Ducks into a postseason position. Moore owns a pass efficiency of 170.08, the fourth-best mark in the nation and within shouting distance of Fernando Mendoza (181.40) and Julian Sayin (182.14).
Texas Tech placed sixth in the NCAA with a 103.86 team passing efficiency rating, trailing only their opponent in Thursday afternoon’s clash from Oregon (103.18). The Red Raiders will need All-American linebacker Jacob Rodriguez to slow down the Ducks talented QB if they hope to play further into January 2025.
| Orange Bowl Odds: Moore Passing Yards vs. Texas Tech | |
| Moore 200+ Passing Yards | -250 |
| Moore 225+ Passing Yards | -136 |
| Moore 250+ Passing Yards | +130 |
| Moore 275+ Passing Yards | +220 |
| Moore 300+ Passing Yards | +360 |
| Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook | Odds are subject to change |
This Oregon-Texas Tech matchup has the potential to be the best Quarterfinals matchup at the 2025 College Football Playoff. It should be a fascinating battle as each offensive group navigates a high-caliber defense presented on the other side of the football. Watch for Oregon to advance to the Semifinals as Moore pulls off some magic in a Ducks win in Miami on Thursday afternoon.
For more on the College Football Playoff, visit AMNY.com.
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