NFL Week 1 Bucs vs Cowboys: Sunday Night Football preview, predictions, prop bets, more

Week 1 of the NFL season is here, and with it comes our first Sunday Night Football showdown. We’ll break down the game and give you our predictions and favorite bets to help make the game more enjoyable for you.

Tampa Bay Bucs (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

@ AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX

How to Watch:

Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC

Betting Stats:

Spread: TB -2.5 (-114)
Over/Under: 50.5 (-110)
Moneyline: TB (-145), DAL (+122)

Matchup:

Our first Sunday Night Football game is a matchup between the two teams that kicked off the 2021 NFL season. However, things will look a little different when they clash on Sunday night.

For starters, the Bucs figure to see a very limited Chris Godwin, who tore his ACL late in the 2021 season, and will definitely be without Rob Gronkowski, who has retired (for now). The Cowboys’ offense will also be without Amari Cooper, who was traded to Cleveland in the offseason, and Michael Gallup, who also tore his ACL late last season.

However, those won’t be the only faces from last year’s clash that aren’t on the field when the offenses have the ball. Both teams have suffered tremendous losses on the offensive lines. Bucs guard Ali Marpet unexpectedly retired this offseason and then training camp injuries knocked center Ryan Jensen and left guard Aaron Stinnie out of the lineup.

The Cowboys will be without eight-time Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith, who is out until at least December with a torn hamstring. But they will also be missing left guard Connor Williams, who signed with Miami in free agency.

In their place, Dallas will start rookie first-round pick Tyler Smith at left tackle, while Tampa Bay will use second-year-pro Robert Hainsey at center and rookie Luke Goedeke at left guard, so both defenses could be licking their chops.

It could also mean that both Tom Brady and Dak Prescott could be under pressure often during the game.

That’s not great news for Brady, who was never overly mobile but is certainly less so as he gets older. In 2021, Brady was 13th-worst in the NFL when facing pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, his clean pocket passing grade was 93.3 but his pressured-pocket grade was just 55.4. He was only pressured on 19% of his dropbacks last year but completed just 44% of his passes when he felt pressure, so if the Cowboys are in his face tonight, and Brady is without Gronk and has Godwin at less than 100%, it could hurt the efficiency of the Bucs offense.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott was actually one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL against pressure last year, according to Pro Football Focus. He had a passing grade of 88.5 with a clean pocket and 67.2 with a pressured-pocket:m “Prescott’s 67.2 pressured-pocket grade was over four points better than the second-best grade, meaning he was technically the best-performing pressured passer of the group.” He completed 53% of passes versus pressure with nine touchdowns, 55 first downs, and 980 yards.

With both offenses set to face pressure and with depleted wide receiver corps, the performance of the running games could be crucial. However, question marks exist with the two stars there as well. Leonard Fournette has been answering questions about his weight since he allegedly came into camp heavy, and Ezekiel Elliott has been adamant that injuries last year sapped his explosiveness but that he’s back to his old self now. Only time will tell if the concerns about the two backs is founded.

At the end of the day, this game could come down to which defense is the best equipt to take advantage of the offensive line injuries and which offense has a role player that is able to step up and make a big play.

Top Player Props:

If you’re going to be betting on action besides the moneyline, here are three player props we like from Sunday night’s game:

With Zeke healthy to start the season, I fully expect the Cowboys to turn to him a lot on the ground, so I don’t think Pollard will see a ton of usage as a runner. However, with the Cowboys’ injuries in their receiving corps, I think Pollard will be a major asset in the passing game, so I like the under on his rushing prop here, but the over on his receiving prop.

I also think this receiving line is a bit high for Fournette. Yes, he grew into a receiving role at the end of last season, but isn’t that what the Bucs drafted Rachaad White to do? Five receptions could be hard for Fournette to hit here.