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College football best bets, picks for Week 9

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Is Notre Dame a college football best bet?
Notre Dame running back Logan Diggs (3) rush the ball past UNLV defensive back Nohl Williams (2) during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022, in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Marc Lebryk)

Last week, we went 4-0 in our college football bets and after going 3-1 the week before, we’re feeling pretty good about our 7-1 record and will try to keep that going. 

There are plenty of strong betting games on this slate, and below are my college football best bets for Week 9. 

Notre Dame vs Syracuse

I actually hate picking against Syracuse because I’m a big fan of what they’ve done this season, but I think this is a prime letdown spot after pushing Clemson to the brink last week on the road. 

However, I also think the final score of the Clemson game is a bit misleading. The Tigers dominated the Orange in many ways, outgaining them 450 to 291 in total yards. Syracuse took advantage of some Clemson mistakes, winning the turnover battle four to one and actually returning one fumble for a touchdown.

I don’t believe that kind of turnover luck is sustainable, and defensive touchdowns are certainly not consistent week-to-week. 

Last week wasn’t the only week that a Syracuse performance feels a bit misleading. 

Earlier in the season, they beat a 3-4 Virginia team 22-20 when the Cavaliers missed both field goal attempts. The Orange also beat a fairly average Purdue team 32-29, so the only good win for the Orange was a 24-9 win over the 24th-ranked NC State Wolfpack.

Syracuse struggles in pass protection, which we saw when Clemson registered five sacks last week. Notre Dame’s defense ranks 14th in Sack Rate, so it could be another long game for the Syracuse offensive line. 

Meanwhile, Notre Dame ranks in the top 25 nationally in almost every run-blocking metric while Syracuse ranks outside the top 115 in the country in both Rush Success Rate and expected points added per Rush. Part of that is a result of Syracuse running a 3-3-5 scheme, but it could lead to Notre Dame being able to control the clock and time of possession. 

Considering the Irish are also 2-0 against the spread as an underdog this year, I think giving them a field goal is a bit too much. 

Best Bet: ND + 3 | DraftKings (-114)

 

UCF vs. Cincinnati

We bet against Cincinnati last week when we picked SMU to cover and while the Bearcats won that game, I feel pretty good about going against them again. 

Last week I mentioned that Cincinnati has had a poorer run defense than many believe this season, and while that didn’t pan out against SMU, I think this matchup against UCF could be another story. 

Cincinnati allowed both South Florida and Arkansas to run all over them, with both teams running for exactly 224 yards. That’s concerning for the Bearcats because both of those offenses were the only two opponents that have ranked inside the top 30 nationally in yards per rush this season. 

UCF ranks in the top 20 in yards per carry, expect points added per rush and rush success rate, so there is a strong argument to be made that they are the best running attack the Bearcats will have faced.

UCF uses an RPO-focused attack with quarterback John Rhys Plumlee that could help offset a strong Bearcat pass rush. Cincinnati wants to play fast and get into the backfield, so if UCF can use that aggression against them, it could lead to some big plays on the ground. 

On offense, Cincinnati’s best hope is to expose the Golden Knights through the air, but leading receiver Tyler Scott was in a boot last week, so that poses a problem for this Bearcats team on the road in a tough environment.

Best Bet: UCF +1 | FanDuel (-110)

 

Tulsa vs. SMU

We bet on SMU last week against Cincinnati, and it worked out, but, as I just covered above, I’m not fully sold on Cincinnati. The Bearcats also beat Tulsa by 10 points earlier in the season, so if you were to try and use Cincinnati as a common denominator, the Mustangs are the slightly better team.

However, we know it’s not that easy.

Tulsa has actually been pretty strong on offense and ranks 38th in the nation with 439.4 total yards per game. Their passing attack has been carrying them with 303.1 yards gained per game, with is 18th-best in the country. SMU has been fine against the pass, ranking 56th with 220.0 passing yards allowed per game; however, part of that has been because they have one of the worst run defenses in football, so teams tend to prefer to run on them. 

The Tulsa run defense has also been fairly poor, ranking fifth-worst in college football with 217.4 rushing yards allowed per game. However, a large portion of that was allowing 455 yards on the ground to Navy, but we can try to keep that in context a bit since playing against a triple-option offense is drastically different than facing any other scheme. 

SMU has the 96th-ranked rushing offense this season, averaging 130.1 rushing yards per game, so they’re not best positioned to take advantage of the Tulsa deficiencies, and I think this is a fairly even match, so I’ll take the points. 

Best Bet: TLSA +2.5  | FanDuel Sportsbook (-114) or BetMGM (-110)

 

Colorado State vs. Boise State

Colorado State is a pretty poor football team, and Boise State has a good defense and loves to run the football. Those are three things I really like when looking to bet unders. 

Let’s start with the Rams. They have gone under this total in all three of their Mountain West games and are averaging 12.8 pints per game with a season-high of 19 points scored in a loss to Middle Tennessee State.

Boise State is holding conference opponents to just 15 points per game, so it’s highly unlikely that the Rams are going to come near their season-high in this game. 

On offense, Boise State ranks 120th in college football with just 162.9 passing yards a game but is 49th with 175.4 rushing yards per contest. The Broncos also recently made a change at quarterback and have been leaning on their running game even more. That should be fine against a Colorado State defense that is fairly average. 

I expect Boise State to get up early and run the ball often, milking the clock and keeping this total low against a Rams team that should find it hard to score points. 

Best Bet: CSU/BSU Under 43 points| BetRivers (-113)

For more college football best bets, make sure to check out amNY Sports

is Boise State a college football best bet?
Boise State quarterback Taylen Green (10) is chased out of the pocket by San Diego State defensive lineman Jonah Tavai (66) during the first half of an NCAA college football game Friday, Sept. 30, 2022, in Boise, Idaho. (AP Photo/Steve Conner)