The NFL Playoffs are now down to two teams and we’ll continue to get you ready with all the betting content you need as we begin our final march toward Super Bowl 57.
What better way to start our player props coverage than by digging into the best props for this year’s likely NFL MVP, Patrick Mahomes?
If you missed our earlier coverage, we’ve gone over the different ways you can bet on the Super Bowl and how previous Super Bowl trends could help you hit on your bets for this year. Make sure to go ahead and check those out.
- Moneyline: PHI (-130) KC (+110)
- Spread: Eagles +2 (-110)
- Total: 49.5 (-110)
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Top Player Props for Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes, OVER 0.5 interceptions
There are two reasons I like this prop and neither is a knock on Mahomes. First of all, the Eagles’ defense was third in the NFL in turnover rate and 5th in the NFL in interception rate. They also ranked 4th in ball-hawk rate, which is a Sports Info Solutions stat that measures the rate at which defenses make a play on the ball on throws 10 yards or more yards downfield.
So the Eagles will play plays on the ball if you take chances against them, and the Chiefs love to take chances. Mahomes is 2nd in the league in average air yards per pass attempt, and the Chiefs are likely going to need him to hit a few big plays to win this game, so they’re not going to hold him back. While he’s limited his interceptions this year, the games where he has shown the most picks are against strong turnover defenses like Buffalo, Denver, and San Francisco.
Finally, Mahomes has thrown two interceptions in each of his previous Super Bowl games, so he’s shown the ability to take unnecessary chances in the Big Game.
WHERE TO BET THIS PROP: DraftKings (-115)
Patrick Mahomes, Longest Rush, UNDER 11.5 Yards
OK, we know that Mahomes is nursing a high ankle sprain because everybody is talking about it. However, I think he may be healed enough to do some running on Super Bowl Sunday, and the Eagles pass rush could flush him from the pocket often. However, I’m not sure he will have the mobility to break a big run.
The Eagles’ have an incredibly athletic front seven, led by Haason Reddick, who was a wrecking ball against the 49ers. Even if Mahomes accumulates his way to hitting the OVER on his rushing prop, I have a hard time seeing him gaining big chunk yardage on the ground when not 100% with this defense chasing him.
WHERE TO BET THIS PROP: DraftKings (-120)
Patrick Mahomes, Longest Completion, OVER 37.5 Yards
We talked above about the fact that Mahomes like to take chances regardless of the importance of the game he’s playing. He’s a risk-taker, which is why he had the 4th-most interceptions this season. It’s also why he led the league in passing yards and has cleared this prop in 12 of 19 games this season. Four of the seven times he didn’t hit this prop, his longest completion was 35 yards, so he’s going to be pushing this distance all game, and I’ll bank on him hitting one.
WHERE TO BET THIS PROP: BetMGM (-115)
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