NFL Week 13 Bills vs Patriots: Thursday Night Football preview, predictions, prop bets, more

Ed Oliver Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver (91) recovers the fumble by Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams during the first half of an NFL football game, Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

The Buffalo Bills look to grab their first division win of the season when they head on the road to take on the New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills (8-3) @ New England Patriots (6-5)

Game Details:

  • Location: Gilette Stadium in Foxboro, MA
  • Time: Thursday, December 1st at 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Channel: Amazon Prime

Betting Stats:

  • SPREAD: BUF -4
  • OVER/UNDER: 43.5
  • MONEYLINE: BUF (-205), NE (+170)


For a full breakdown of the keys to this game, check out my article posted on Wednesday morning. 


Bills 26       Patriots 20

Top Player Props:

If you’re going to be betting on action besides the spread, here are three player props we like from Thursday night’s game:

Josh Allen Over 41.5 Rushing Yards 

There are a few reasons I like this prop. For one, Josh Allen found his legs again last week after only rushing three times the week before. Part of that had to do with the injuries on the Buffalo offensive line, which caused the pocket to collapse and forced Allen to scramble. With Dion Dawkins banged up, I think that happens again.

The Patriots have also struggled against the mobile quarterbacks they faced this season giving up 107 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson, 82 to Justin Fields, and even 39 to Sam Ehlinger on just five rushes. I think Allen can be the next name on the list. 

This is over 44.5 on most sites, so head to FanDuel quickly if you can

Where to bet: -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook


Isaiah McKenzie over 29.5 receiving yards

I covered this in the article, but McKenzie is much better against man coverage than zone. He caught 11 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown last year against the Patriots when he started for Cole Beasley and toasted Detroit, another man coverage defense, for 96 yards and a touchdown last week. McKenzie getting over 30 receiving yards seems likely here. 

Where to bet: -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook or -120 on DraftKings


Hunter Henry under 25.5 receiving yards

The Bills historically do a pretty good job against tight ends when both Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano are active, which will be the case on Thursday. The cornerback play has also been suspect for Buffalo this year, so could see Mac Jones attack with his wide receivers when he needs to throw, but New England will certainly want to run and control the clock and keep Josh Allen off the field, so I don’t expect too much throwing unless they fall behind quickly. 

Where to bet:  -114 at BetRivers Sportsbook

For more NFL coverage, like this Bills and Patriots preview, visit amNY Sports.com

Mac Jones and the Patriots take on the Bills
New England quarterback Mac Jones (10) looks to pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings, Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Andy Clayton-King)