Two potential Super Bowl contenders clash on Sunday Night. While neither has gotten off to a dominant start, they’ll look to get a statement win in Week 4.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Tampa Bay Bucs (2-1)
Game Details:
- Location: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, FL
- Time: Sunday, October 2nd at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Channel: NBC
Betting Stats:
The last time these teams met was in the 2020 Super Bowl when the Bucs destroyed the Chiefs 31-9 behind a vicious pass rush. Will it be more of the same this time around?
Preview:
So far in the 2022 season, these have not been the two high-powered offenses we’ve been used to seeing.
The Chiefs looked great in Week 1, but it’s starting to look like that 44 point outburst may have been more about going up against a poor Cardinals defense that was missing J.J. Watt and a couple of cornerbacks.
Last week, the Chiefs scored 17 points against the Colts and look uncharacteristically sloppy, dropping touchdowns and missing field goals. It’s possible, in fact likely, that this team really misses Tyreek Hill. Without him to space the field and take the top off of the defense, the offense just hasn’t seemed to fully click.
They’ll need to clean it up this week because the Bucs defense is far and away the best defense they’ve faced so far this season. The Bucs rank first in DVOA and first in points allowed per game giving up just three touchdowns in three games so far. They have an elite secondary led by Mike Edwards, Antoine Winfield Jr., Logan Ryan, Carlton Davis, and Jamel Dean, so it’s going to be tough for Kansas City to move the ball if they’re not firing on all cylinders.
That doesn’t even factor in the way defensive tackle Vita Vea and stud linebacker Lavonte David stuff the run. The Chiefs rushed for only 58 yards on 23 carries against the Colts and it’s hard to see them having more success on Sunday night against Tampa Bat.
Meanwhile, the Tom Brady-led offense has also been poor, averaging just 17 points per game so far this season. However, a lot of that can be attributed to injuries on the offensive line, to wide receivers Chris Godwin and Julio Jones, and to a one-game suspension for Mike Evans.
While the offensive line injuries aren’t going away, Mike Evans will return from suspension and it’s looking like both Godwin and Jones will suit up on Sunday night, which is great news for Tom Brady and this offense.
The Chiefs defense hasn’t been bad this year, ranking 7th in net yards allowed per pass attempt, 5th in rushing yards allowed per carry, and 2nd in pressure rate. It might not be easy for Tampa Bay to move the ball, but Kansas City is also just 28th in turnover rate, and I think they might need to make a big play or two on defense to win on the road here.
Picks:
Player Props:
We mentioned that Kansas City’s defense has been good, but Leonard Fournette is on the field all the time for the Bucs. I think over 64.5 rushing yards seems likely in a game I expect the Bucs to be leading.
If the Bucs are leading, that means Kansas City will be throwing. While Jerick McKinnon is actually out-snapping Clyde Edwards-Helaire, CEH has out-targeted McKinnon 9-to-3 in the last two games. I think CEH will see more of the passing work here so over 17.5 receiving yards is in play, but I also think the added need to pass will lead to at least one Patrick Mahomes interception against this strong secondary.
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