The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs look to slam the door on the Los Angeles Chargers’ division hopes with a win on Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
Game Details:
- Location: SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, CA
- Time: Sunday, November 20th at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Channel: NBC
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: KC (-240), LAC (+196)
- SPREAD: KC -5
- OVER/UNDER: 52
Preview:
The big story right from the start is that wide receiver Mike Williams will be back for the Chargers, and Keenan Allen is also planning on playing Sunday night, which is obviously a massive boost for the Los Angeles offense.
In their absence, Joshua Palmer and Deandre Carter have filled in admirably, and the Chargers are ranked 16th in the NFL with 22.2 points per game and 5th in the league in passing offense, averaging 265.3 passing yards per game. Given that much of that has been done without Williams and Allen and also Jalen Guyton, who is out for the season, it’s a testament to the ability of Justin Herbert.
The Los Angeles quarterback has completed 66% of his passes for 2,450 yards with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. He will face a Kansas City defense that is 14th in yards allowed per pass attempt, so there is. a chance that Herbert can put together a nice game if his top two options are back.
On the other hand, the Chargers have been brutal on the ground, ranking 30th in the NFL with 3.7 yards per carry. Austin Ekeler leads the team with 451 yards and six touchdowns on 4.3 yards per carry; however, he has been tremendous as a receiver, catching 67 passes for 420 yards and four touchdowns already. Perhaps the Chargers can get him going on the ground now that defenses will need to focus more on stopping Allen and Williams.
Another feather in the cap of the Los Angeles offense is that they give up the fewest sacks in the NFL, which should be a good test for a Kansas City defense that is 7th in quarterback pressure rate. However, if the Chiefs are unable to get to Herbert then it could put their defense in a tough spot since they’re also 29th in the NFL in turnover rate.
When the Chiefs have the ball, it’s no surprise that Patrick Mahomes has been tremendous. He leads the NFL in passing TDs and passing yards per game and hasn’t missed a beat with Tyreek Hill now in Miami.
However, Mahomes will have his work cut out for him on Sunday night without wide receivers Mecole Hardman, who was placed on injured reserve earlier this week, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who was ruled out due to lingering effects of a concussion suffered last week.
Mahomes will still have Travis Kelce, who leads the team with 63 catches for 740 yards and eight touchdowns, and new addition Kadarius Toney, who is apparently fully healthy after hauling in four catches for 57 yards and a touchdown last week, while also rushing for 33 yards on two carries.
Last week, the Chargers held San Francisco tight end George Kittle to a single catch, thanks in large part to Derwin James, so Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will need to step up to ensure this Chiefs offense keeps humming.
That should be made easier by the fact that Los Angeles star defensive end Joey Bosa has been hurt since Week 3, Austin Johnson landed on IR last week, and fellow defensive tackles Otito Ogbonnia and Christian Covington joined him this week.
As a result, the Chargers went into last week giving up an NFL-worst 5.7 yards per carry. On the surface, that wouldn’t seem to be a factor since the Chiefs rank 16th in the NFL with 4.6 yards per carry and 21st at 109.2 rushing yards per game. Isiah Pacheco has taken the starting job from Clyde Edwards-Helaire and ran for 86 yards on 16 carries last week against the Jaguars, so maybe this is his breakout game.
Picks:
Player Props:
Austin Ekeler over 90.5 rushing + receiving yards
We talked above about how valuable Ekeler has been to this offense. I don’t expect that to change just because Williams and – maybe – Allen return. If anything, that could create more running room for Ekeler, and I still expect him to be involved in the passing game, especially if the Chiefs are able to get pressure on Herbert.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-114) ON FANDUEL
Patrick Mahomes over 289.5 passing yards
This number is well below Mahomes’ season average, and I think a lot of that has to do with the Chargers’ poor run defense. Most people don’t throw aggressively against them, but this Kansas City team isn’t built to pound the ball on the ground, so I still think Mahomes will get his.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-114) ON FANDUEL
Isaiah Pacheco anytime touchdown scorer
While Kansas City might not just run over Los Angeles all game long, I still do think they’ll run, and Pacheco has been the man for the job lately. He has a hard-running style, and I think he can power one in for a touchdown against a soft run defense.
