The Los Angeles Chargers will look to clinch a spot in the NFL Playoffs with a win on the road over the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night.
Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1)
Game Details:
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
- Time: Monday, December 26th at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: LAC ML (-210), IND ML (+175)
- SPREAD: LAC -4
- OVER/UNDER: 45.5
Preview:
While the Chargers are the team that can clinch a playoff spot with a win, much of the talk pre-game has been centered around the fact that the Colts are trying their third starting quarterback of the season with Nick Foles set to make his first start as a replacement for the ineffective Matt Ryan.
Ryan was a flop for Indianapolis this year, and really not much has gone right. The team fired Frank Reich in the middle of the season but has not shown much more life since Jeff Saturday took. They’re 20th in the NFL in scoring rate and are coming off making NFL history with the largest collapse on record after blowing a 33-0 lead over Minnesota.
However, they did put up points against the Vikings and they have a decent shot to do so on Monday night since the Chargers are in the bottom 10 of the NFL in scoring rate allowed. Derwin James should be back for Los Angeles, but they’ve been without Joey Bosa since Week 3 and it has taken some of the teeth out of this defense.
Foles can throw the deep ball to the perimeter better than Ryan at this stage in their careers, and he’s far more mobile (which isn’t hard), so he should give this passing game a little bit of life. The Chargers are 7th in the NFL in completion percentage allowed, but they are 23rd in air yards per completion, so teams have had success hitting some big plays against them.
Indianapolis hasn’t done much in the passing game this year, but they do have two good man-defense beaters in Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce. Pittman leads the team with 86 catches for 815 yards, while Pierce has chipped in 510 yards on 32 catches and slot receiver Parris Campbell has added an identical 510 yards on 52 catches, so there are some options for Foles.
Which is good news since he won’t have star running back Jonathan Taylor, who went to the IR with an ankle injury. The Colts will now go with a combination of Zack Moss, who had 24 carries for 81 yards against Minnesota, and Deon Jackson, who has filled in admirably for Taylor a few times this year. It’s not an ideal combination when facing a beatable 31st-ranked run defense, but you know these two will get their opportunities.
On the other side, the Chargers have no questions at quarterback, where Justin Herbert continues his ascendance. On the season, he’s completed 67.5% of his passes for 4,019 yards with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Los Angeles is one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL but injuries to star receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have held this offense back at times this year. As a result, they have the league’s 14th-best scoring rate, which could pose a problem since Indianapolis ranks 10th in the league giving up just 206 passing yards per game.
However, Kirk Cousins did put up 460 yards and four touchdowns last week, so maybe the Colts have lost some fight. They also rank 26th overall in DVOA against tight ends, so Gerald Everett could be a factor in this game.
What we do know is that Los Angeles is not likely to have success on the ground. Indianapolis is in the top 10 in rushing success rate allowed and Austin Ekeler is averaging a career-low 4.2 yards per carry. He’s topped 60 rushing yards only twice all season and has averaged 3.5 yards per carry or less in eight games.
However, Ekeler has been a stud in the receiving game with 95 catches this season. In fact, he’s five catches away from becoming just the fifth running back to record 100 or more catches in a season. This should be a tremendous matchup for him since the Colts rank 28th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game. I expect Ekeler to be a huge component of the Chargers moving the ball up and down the field for a few scores.
Pick:
Los Angeles 31 Indianapolis 20
Player Props:
Austin Ekeler OVER 35.5 receiving yards
We discussed above that Indianapolis struggles against running backs in the passing game. They allow and an average of seven targets and 44 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs and have given up five receptions of 20 or more yards, which is 3rd worst in the NFL. Ekeler has topped this line in 10 games this season, so I’m happy to bet on him to make it 11.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at DraftKings (+105)
Nick Foles OVER 224.5 passing yards
Indianapolis definitely wants to run the ball, and that’s how teams have had success against Los Angeles all season, but I expect Justin Herbert to lead a few touchdown drives, which will force Foles to have to air it out. He may not be a world-beater, but Foles is a solid quarterback who has some good weapons on the perimeter against a beatable Chargers secondary that ranks 29th in yards allowed per completion. This is just a really low line.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at FanDuel (-113)
Zack Moss UNDER 13.5 rush attempts
I know we mentioned that you beat the Chargers on the ground and that the Colts want to run the ball, so that would seem to imply that Moss would hit this over. However, the team also mentioned that it will go with a “hot hand” approach at running back, and Deon Jackson has been more effective than Moss all season. Add to that the fact that Jackson is their receiving back, and a likely negative game script, and I think we see a lot more Jackson than Moss on Monday night.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at DraftKings (+100)
