The Indianapolis Colts try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive when they head to Dallas to take on the Cowboys.
Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
Game Details:
- Location: AT&T Stadium in Dallas, TX
- Time: Sunday, December 4th at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Channel: NBC
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: DAL (-550), IND (+400)
- SPREAD: DAL -10.5
- OVER/UNDER: 44.5
Preview:
The Cowboys are clearly the better team here and, with an 8-3 record, seemingly have a playoff spot locked up and a chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They are currently two games behind the Eagles but will face Philadelphia one more time, so while it’s an uphill battle, it’s not out of the question.
The Colts meanwhile fired Frank Reich a month ago and installed Jeff Saturday as head coach, even though he had never coached in the pros or in college. Saturday immediately reinstalled veteran Matt Ryan as the starting quarterback and went to a more run-heavy gameplan.
In his three weeks as head coach, the Colts are 1-2 and averaging just 19.3 points per game. Although, that’s an improvement from before, and upped their season average to 15.8 points per game, which is second-worst in the NFL. The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in points allowed, giving up just 17 a game, so points may be hard to come by for Indianapolis here.
Another issue for Indianapolis could be turnovers. Matt Ryan has a league-leading 23 on the year. That’s a problem, especially considering Dallas leads the league with 45 sacks and is 8th with 16 takeaways. It could be a long day for Ryan with Micah Parsons and company hounding him.
The Colts will try to mitigate that risk by riding running back Jonathan Taylor, who ranks 10th in the NFL with 779 rushing yards despite missing three games due to an ankle injury. If he can churn out consistent yardage, the Colts can slow this game down and keep it close, but consistent poor performance by this offensive line has led the team to be dead last in rush DVOA on the season.
Also, Dallas is the 10th-ranked defense when it comes to rush DVOA and just shut down Giants running back Saquon Barkley, holding the NFL’s fourth-leading rusher to 39 rushing yards on 11 carries and one touchdown, so it could be hard to bank on much from Taylor.
When Dallas has the ball, they will also find running lanes a bit hard to come by against Indianapolis’ 11th-ranked rush defense. However, we know Dallas will continue to plow ahead with their two backs, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Due to injuries from Zeke, Pollard has emerged as a breakout star this year, rushing for 761 yards on an impressive 5.6 yards per carry.
The Colts are 13th in the NFL in pass defense DVOA so Dallas may try to lean more on Dak Prescott here, but the Colts did just hold potential MVP candidate Jalen Hurts to 190 yards just two weeks ago. The issue is that there is no big-play ability in this secondary as Indianapolis has only four interceptions all year. Prescott should be able to pick his matchups with CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz all healthy, and I’m not sure this pass defense will be up to the task.
Pick:
Cowboys 24 Colts 16
Player Props:
Tony Pollard over 15.5 receiving yards
With Zeke back and mixing in, Pollard has remained a consistent part of the passing game. That’s good for him this week because the Colts are 24th in DVOA to running backs, allowing 7 targets and 41.4 yards per game through the air to opposing backs. Pollard could conceivably get this on one catch but even two should do it, so I like this prop.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-115) ON DRAFTKINGS
Matt Ryan under 223.5 passing yards
Matt Ryan hasn’t been good, and we know the Colts will want to try to find success on the ground, so I feel pretty comfortable going under this prop.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-115) ON DRAFTKINGS
Dalton Schultz anytime touchdown scorer
I don’t usually do too many anytime touchdown scorer bets, but they’re fun and Indianapolis is 22nd in the NFL in red zone touchdown rate, so if Dallas gets close, they should be able to punch it in. A little play-action fake to the tight end sounds lovely to me.
