Two teams going in opposite directions face off on Thursday night when the Philadelphia Eagles, the NFL’s only undefeated team, travel to Houston to take on the Texans
Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) at Houston Texans (1-5-1)
How to Watch:
- Day: Thursday, October November 4th
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: Amazon Prime
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: PHI (-800), HOU (+550)
- SPREAD: PHI -14
- OVER/UNDER: 45
On paper, this looks like a complete mismatch. Is there any chance the Texans can keep this close or steal a win at home?
Matchup:
The Eagles are the NFL’s lone undefeated team and are sporting a +78-point differential. They rank among the top three in the league in both total offense and total defense and are exceptionally healthy right now, so there really aren’t many holes to poke in their case as the NFL’s best team.
On offense, Philadelphia is averaging 28 points per game, which is 3rd-best in the league, and they rank 3rd in offensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. They’re also tremendous at taking care of the ball, with just two turnovers all season. They run an incredibly balanced attack, throwing for 245.9 yards and rushing for 149.6 yards per game.
A key to their success has obviously been the development of Jalen Hurts. While he only has 10 touchdown passes on the season, he’s completed 67% of his passes and has been tremendous at limiting mistakes. Only Tom Brady has fewer than Hurts’ two interceptions among starting quarterbacks. Plus, we know the value he adds with his legs, rushing for 303 yards on the season, fourth among quarterbacks behind Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, and Josh Allen.
Houston has played well defensively, giving up 22 points per game, but part of that has to do with teams not feeling pressure to put up big point totals to beat a team with little offensive punch. The Texans rank 30th in defensive DVOA and could have a problem against this deep Eagles offense.
The biggest name to watch out for is Philadelphia’s key offseason acquisition, wide receiver A.J. Brown. Brown erupted last week against the Steelers for 156 yards and a career-best three touchdowns and now has 659 yards and five touchdowns on the year. DeVonta Smith (420 yards and two touchdowns) and Dallas Goedert (421 yards and one touchdown) round out a trio of talented pass-catchers.
Yet, Philadelphia also boasts a strong running game that ranks 6th in the NFL. Miles Sanders has played in all seven games and has 563 rushing yards and five touchdowns. The Eagles also have two strong rotational backs in Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, and considering Derrick Henry ran all over the Texans last week, we could see a lot of these backs on Thursday.
Things don’t get easier for the Texans when they’re on offense. The Eagles’ defense ranks 2nd in DVOA, while the Texans’ offense ranks 31st.
Philadelphia is giving up 16.9 points per game and is among the best in the NFL in sacks and pressure rate. Plus, they lead the league with 16 takeaways, including 10 interceptions. Scoring on them is going to be a tall order for a Houston team averaging 16.6 points per game.
The Texans and second-year quarterback Davis Mills are throwing for 196.3 yards per game, while Philadelphia allows just 183.4 yards per game through the air and less than 4.8 yards per play. Mills has also thrown six interceptions and taken 16 sacks, so he could be in for a long night on Thursday.
Of course, it doesn’t help him that his top receiver, Brandin Cooks, is openly blasting his team for not trading him at the deadline and seems to have no interest in helping the organization. Plus, the Texans’ number two receiver, Nico Collins, has a groin injury and is unlikely to play.
That means Houston will likely rely heavily on rookie running back Dameon Pierce, who has been their best player. Houston is rushing for 92.4 yards per game and Pierce has 539 rushing yards in seven games. He’s just going to find the sledding much harder against this Eagles’ defense.
Even though the Texans have been tied or ahead in five of their seven games this season, I have a hard time dreaming up a way that they can keep this close.
Staff Picks:
Top Player Props:
If you’re going to be betting on action besides the spread, here are three player props we like from Thursday night’s game:
A.J. Brown Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
We mentioned above just how good Brown has been this year. He owns a 31.4% target share and averages 16.9 yards per catch, so even if he only has a few receptions in a blowout, he should still be able to hit this total.
Where to bet: A.J. Brown over 69.5 receiving yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Davis Mills Under 219.5 passing yards
We talked above about the issues with Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks, so that already sours me on Mills. However, the Houston quarterback had just 152 passing yards last week and finished with an average depth of target of 3.6 yards. I don’t see how he is going to be more aggressive against the number two pass defense in expected points added per dropback. I’m smashing the under here.
Where to bet: Davis Mills under 234.5 passing yards | -117 at BetRivers
Miles Sanders under 80.5 rushing yards
This 76.5-yard rushing total is actually 14 yards over Sanders’ average rushing total of 56.1 yards per game on the season. While this may seem to like a clear plus matchup, we saw Philadelphia blow out the Steelers last week as a double-digit favorite and rested its starters late in the game.
In fact, Miles Sanders had just nine carries in Week 8, and there’s no reason to think that can’t happen again, especially with a short week. The Eagles could choose to rotate his backs more, since, in his two games with a short week last year, Sanders averaged just eight carries for 50 yards. If he doesn’t get tons of carries, it’s going to be hard for Sanders to hit this total since he has just four carries of 20-plus yards on the season.
Where to bet: Miles Sanders under 80.5 rushing yards |-117 at Caesars Sportsbook
