Does Josh Allen’s 2022 season bring to light issues with the NFL MVP voting?

Josh Allen’s 2022 season has seen him reach heights that no quarterback in NFL history has ever reached, and he still won’t win the NFL MVP award.

Heading into Week 17, Allen has completed 63.4% of his passes for 4,029 yards while throwing for 32 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He’s also added 746 yards rushing and another seven touchdowns. In fact, he is the only player in NFL history to throw for 4,000+ yards and 30+ touchdowns while also running for 700+ yards and 7+ rushing touchdowns.

We’re watching NFL history and we aren’t even acknowledging it.

Perhaps the bigger issue is that the NFL won’t acknowledge it either.

As of Wednesday, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the odds-on favorite to claim the NFL MVP with -500 odds. Allen isn’t even the next player behind him. That would be Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow, who has +750 odds that are just better than Allen’s +800.

So if Allen is doing something that has never been done before in the NFL and his team currently has the best record in the AFC, why is he trailing two other AFC quarterbacks in the MVP voting, and does this call into question how the NFL MVP is awarded?

Let’s start by breaking down their stats:

Allen: 63.4% completion, 4,029 passing yards, 32 passing TDs, 13 INTs, 746 rushing yards, 7 rush TDs.

Mahomes: 66.9% completion, 4,720 passing yards, 37 passing TDs, 11 INTs, 321 rushing yards, 4 rush TDs.

Burrow: 69% completion, 4,260 passing yards, 34 passing TDs, 12 INTs, 247 rushing yards, 5 rush TDs.

The common narrative is that Allen’s turnovers have hurt his chances of winning the MVP this year, but he has just one more interception than Burrow and two more than Mahomes so that certainly can’t be the main reason he won’t win the hardware.

It’s clear that Mahomes has the best stats in terms of passing yards and touchdowns. However, Allen has more than double his rushing yards and almost double his rushing touchdowns. In fact, when you combine the yardage and touchdown totals, the numbers look a bit different.

Allen: 63.4% completion, 4,775 total yards, 39 TDs, 13 INTs

Mahomes: 66.9% completion, 5,041 total yards, 41 total TDs, 11 INTs

Burrow: 69% completion, 4,507 total yards, 39 TDs, 12 INTs

Mahomes still owns the edge here, but this seems like a pretty even discussion for the MVP award. Not one that is essentially all but decided. Especially when you consider that all three quarterbacks are leading teams who could still win the AFC.

So is the argument that Mahomes is more valuable to his team than Allen or Burrow are?

If you track the total yards and total touchdowns of Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati then you can see just how much each quarterback has played a hand in the total offense of each team. Mahomes accounts for 79.9% of Kansas City’s total yards and 80% of the team’s touchdowns. Allen accounts for 79.1% of Buffalo’s total yards and 83% of Buffalo’s total touchdowns, while Burrow accounts for 81.8% of Cincinnati’s total yards and 83% of Cincinnati’s total yards.

If anything, Burrow has been more valuable to his team, but it seems like all three quarterbacks have been almost identical in their value to their team’s offensive performance. Again, another indication that the odds should be much closer than they currently are.

What about the supporting cast?

Each quarterback has an elite receiving option with Travis Kelce in Kansas City, Stefon Diggs in Buffalo, and Ja’Marr Chase in Cincinnati. The Bengals have the best complementary receivers in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and also have the most talented individual running back in Joe Mixon.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Chiefs have the 3rd-best offensive line in the league, while the Bills rank 23rd and the Bengals rank 28th. This would suggest that, in order for the Bills and Bengals to move the ball and sustain drives, more would rest on the shoulders of their quarterbacks while playing behind bottom-third offensive lines.

The case for Allen to win the NFL MVP is clear. He’s having a statistically similar season to the other contenders, has an equally flawed supporting cast, and has an equal amount of importance within his team’s offense. However, he’s the only one with history-breaking metrics and a team that currently sits in first place in the conference. If the Bills beat the Bengals on Monday, his team would also have wins over each of the other contenders.

While that shouldn’t guarantee Allen the award, it at least warrants odds that are far closer than they currently stand in actually.

If Patrick Mahomes is currently being viewed as that much of a lock, it’s fair to wonder why. What in his resume makes him so head and shoulders better than Burrow and Allen this season? We just went through every angle and couldn’t find anything that created that big of a gap between the three signal callers.

If the voting winds up heavily in favor of Mahomes, it might be time to ask how exactly the NFL MVP is awarded and whether or not it consistently produces the correct result.