We’re four weeks into the college football season, and we’ve already seen movement in the Heisman Trophy odds after a few faces we doubted from last year continued their strong showings from last year.
Each week we’ll take a look at how the odds are shifting in the Heisman Trophy race to try to help you identify the best bets or the biggest odds movement that might be best to ignore. While one or two weeks might not be enough to persuade you to change your bet, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on the shifts in lines to see if it indicates value changes.
So what are the odds after Week 4?
Updated Heisman Trophy Odds
C.J. Stroud (+125) saw his odds improve from +200 last week and is getting close to even money here. The Ohio State quarterback has 1,222 yards passing and 16 touchdowns to just one interception in four games this year. However, the Buckeyes haven’t really played anybody challenging this year since Wisconsin looks like a shell of itself.
Stroud is a strong passer on one of the better teams in the nation, so he will remain a favorite, but the odds are now making it slightly less compelling to bet on him now. Unfortunately, with Michigan State and Iowa also looking fairly average this year, Stroud may not have a real test until October 29th at Penn State.
Alabama quarterback Bryce Young (+500) saw his odds stay the same, but that was enough to propel him over USC quarterback Caleb Williams (+600), who saw his odds fall from +300 last week. Young was the betting favorite coming into this year, but his odds suffered when Alabama survived a scare against Texas a couple of weeks ago. Since then, Young has been tremendous and has 1,029 passing yards with 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions. The Crimson Tide remain one of the favorites for the National Championship, which means he remains a real threat to win the Heisman Trophy.
I think this may actually present a strong buying opportunity on Williams. His odds fell after he threw for just 180 yards and a touchdown in a win over Oregon State last week, but Williams didn’t make many mistakes. His completion percentage (44.4%) was really low, but he still has nine touchdowns and no interceptions on the year to go along with 1,054 yards. If USC has another big win in the coming weeks, we could see his odds shift again, so now might be the best time to get a share or two.
The last name to discuss is Stetson Bennett (+2500). The Georgia quarterback was a bit of an afterthought coming into this season even though he led the Bulldogs to a national title last year. The prevailing wisdom was that he was just a game-manager, but he’s thrown for 1,224 yards in four games this season and is pushing the ball down the field just as much as these other quarterbacks. He has only five touchdown passes on the year, but I’d imagine Georgia lets him throw more aggressively when they actually play in a close game, which makes him an intriguing dark horse bet.
I also just wanted to highlight Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels (+3000) who won’t win but has had a tremendous start to the year, throwing for 890 yards and 11 touchdowns in four games while also rushing for 326 yards and four more touchdowns on the ground.
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