The New York Mets’ starting rotation is nearly unrecognizable from what it was on Opening Day.
Part of it is a testament to the organizational depth that is brewing in the farm system. The more obvious part is that the arms brought in by David Stearns have fallen significantly short this season, whether it was performance-based or not.
Griffin Canning ruptured his Achilles, Paul Blackburn was DFA’d, and Frankie Montas’ season is done due to injury, but not before he was demoted to the bullpen after sporting an ERA over six. Kodai Senga is in Triple-A after considerable struggles across July and into August. Clay Holmes has slowed significantly amidst a career-high workload that has seen him pitch more than double his previous record — an obvious development considering this is his first year as a starter. Even David Peterson, an All-Star, has been wildly inconsistent down the stretch.
It forced Stearns to call up the kids, and so far, they have mostly been as advertised. Nolan McLean looks like an ace, Jonah Tong is showing plus stuff at just 22 years old, and Brandon Sproat carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning of his MLB debut on Sunday against the Cincinnati Reds.
Their arrivals have created some difficult questions for the Mets should they make the postseason, as rotations are usually cut down to four starters. As it stands, there are six with Senga currently trying to figure things out in Triple-A.
So, how would their rotation look come October?
Projected Mets postseason rotation
Nolan McLean
The 24-year-old right-hander has already developed into the Mets’ undisputed ace in less than a month. Entering Monday night’s start against the Philadelphia Phillies, he won each of his first four appearances, owned a minuscule 1.37 ERA, an even more impressive 0.759 WHIP, and struck out 28 in 26.1 innings of work.
His stuff has MLB veterans and personalities alike questioning what they saw. A 92-mph sinker with an obscene amount of horizontal break to strike out Colt Keith on Sept. 2 had Detroit Tigers broadcaster Jason Benetti exclaim live on the air, “What is that?”
“It’s a sinker but like … it’s glowing!”
Nolan McLean amazed Tigers broadcaster Jason Benetti with his sinker 🤣 pic.twitter.com/qMHZRI8OpE
— MLB (@MLB) September 3, 2025
He has struck out nearly 30% of all batters he has faced and has allowed groundballs on 66% of balls put in play. That kind of stuff makes him a no-brainer to be a Game 1 starter until proven otherwise.
David Peterson
Has the last month been an anomaly? Or is David Peterson’s 2025 season swirling down the drain?
The veteran southpaw had been the Mets’ ace for most of the season, serving as the all-important stopper during their miserable two-month run between June and August. He garnered an All-Star selection in the first half, and even by Aug. 1, he had a 2.83 ERA on the season.
But things have gone significantly south since then. In his last six outings, he has a 7.42 ERA, including an Aug. 30 start against the Miami Marlins in which he lasted just two innings, allowing eight runs on eight hits.
There is still time to turn things around, and his track record over the last two seasons should at least earn him a spot, for now. He was a vital Swiss Army Knife in the postseason last year after posting a 2.90 ERA in the regular season, which makes this last month a small sample size to delve into.
Of course, that conversation changes drastically if he can’t turn things around over the next three weeks.
Jonah Tong
Of course, Tong would have to show more to secure a postseason spot, but the underlying metrics are promising even after just two starts — and one that featured him allowing three home runs in a loss to the Reds.
Regardless, the young right-hander is yielding weak contact more than most pitchers in the majors, with an average exit velocity of 87.1 mph. His hard-hit percentage is also at a solid 36.1%.
With more major league innings comes more comfort, and Tong’s stuff coupled with his funky delivery is already drawing comparisons to Tim Lincecum. That’s a high ceiling to rely on going into the postseason when the entire book isn’t necessarily out on him yet.
Kodai Senga
Before you grab your pitchforks and torches, hear me out.
The 32-year-old right-hander has been sent to Triple-A, where he will throw a couple of bullpen sessions to focus solely on his mechanics and get them right. Then comes the minor-league outings.
If Senga can figure it out and rediscover his groove, he is a no-brainer to get back in the rotation, regardless of how many more innings he has in the majors during the regular season.
When he’s on, he is as untouchable as any frontline starter in the league. His ghost forkball is still one of the most dastardly pitches in the game, and we all know what he can do when he’s healthy. Senga had a 2.98 ERA and 202 strikeouts in his rookie year two years ago before 2024 was lost to injuries. He had a 1.47 ERA in his first 13 starts of this season before a hamstring injury sidelined him for a month, which was when his problems began.
Again, if he gets back to his early-season form, it’s a no-brainer to include him.
What about the others?
Holmes had a sub-3.00 ERA at the start of July, but the increased workload has clearly worn him down. Not only does he have a 4.70 ERA across his last 11 starts, but the depth is seriously lacking. The 32-year-old has pitched more than five innings just twice since July 8 and lasted just 4.2 frames on Sept. 3 against the Tigers.
In terms of postseason play, managers tend to have shorter leashes nowadays, so it could still work in October. But the Mets’ bullpen has been less than stellar even after bulking up at the trade deadline, so depth is going to be imperative.
As for last year’s hero, Sean Manaea, it has not come together for him yet after starting the season in July due to an oblique injury. Not only does he have a 5.60 ERA across 10 starts this season, but he has failed to reach the five-inning mark in four of his last five outings.
The Wild Card
It’s Sproat. He had to wait the longest of the Mets’ top three pitching prospects to get the call to the majors, and he looked the part in his debut on Sunday. If he can do it again (and again), then suddenly, you are going to start hearing intensified shouts from Mets fans to include all three of the kids in the postseason rotation.
