The NFL season is off and running. Over these first few weeks, we’ve seen contenders separate themselves both in terms of team results and individual awards like the NFL MVP.
Each week we’ll take a look at how the odds are shifting in the NFL MVP race to try to help you identify the best bets or the biggest odds movement that might be best to ignore. While one or two weeks might not be enough to persuade you to change your bet, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on the shifts in lines to see if it indicates value changes.
So what are the odds after Week 5?
Updated NFL MVP Odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
| Josh Allen | +200 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +500 |
| Lamar Jackson | +550 |
| Jalen Hurts | +600 |
| Justin Herbert | +1200 |
| Joe Burrow | +3300 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Click here to view
Josh Allen (+200) was at +340 just a few weeks ago, so he not only remains the betting favorite but has seen his odds continue to go up as the season goes on. Not surprising after last week’s 424-yard and four-touchdown performance against the Steelers. On the season, Allen has completed 66.8% of his passes for a league-leading 1,651 yards, 14 touchdowns, and four interceptions, while adding 225 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
It’s hard to bet against Allen right now, but you can if you think that Patrick Mahomes (+500) is the better choice. We’ll see those two face off on Sunday, so it could be a good early test of the MVP favorite.
Mahomes hasn’t missed a beat without Tyreek Hill, throwing for 1,398 yards, a league-leading 15 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. The biggest difference is that Mahomes doesn’t offer what Allen does on the ground, rushing for just 92 yards on no touchdowns through the first five games. That added element remains a big factor in Allen’s favor.
Speaking of rushing upside, Lamar Jackson (+550) and Jalen Hurts (+600) have become legitimate MVP candidates after both were listed at over +1000 just three weeks ago.
Jackson won the NFL MVP in 2019, so it’s certainly well within the realm of possibility that he snags another trophy. However, his lack of receiving weapons could hold him back from topping Allen and Mahomes. So far Jackson has only thrown for 1,067 yards in five games and has 12 touchdowns to five interceptions. Of course, he has rushed for 374 yards and two touchdowns and that rushing upside will keep him in the conversation.
No team may be as dependent on their quarterback for offense as Baltimore is on Jackson, and that includes how important Allen is to Buffalo. As a result, Jackson will almost undoubtedly have the stats to support an NFL MVP candidacy.
However, Hurts may be the best bet here, but his offense is also holding him back. Hurts is completing 68% of his passes for 1,359 yards; however, he only has four touchdown passes because of how run-heavy the Eagles are. Hurts does have 266 yards and another six touchdowns on the ground, but he’s likely going to have to throw more touchdowns if he’s going to leap over the likes of Mahomes and Allen.
Working in Hurts’ favor is that the Eagles have a favorable schedule the rest of the way, so it’s entirely possible that he could rack up some impressive stats while playing for the number one seed in the NFC, which will make him an enticing bet.
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