The Green Bay Packers look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive when they host the Los Angeles Rams.
Los Angeles Rams (4-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-8)
Game Details:
- Location: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI
- Time: Monday, December 19th at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: GB ML (-335), LAR ML (+260)
- SPREAD: GB -7
- OVER/UNDER: 39.5
Preview:
It’s pretty obvious that neither of these teams has lived up to pre-season expectations, but both of them still have playoff dreams (barely) alive. If the Packers win their final four games, they will have a 55% chance of making the playoffs, while the Rams’ chances are much slimmer as they need to run the table and get a lot of help from other teams.
The struggles for Los Angeles this year come mostly on the offensive side, where they average just 16.8 points per game. Now, part of that has to do with injuries to Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, but they weren’t playing great football when those two we healthy either.
On the season, the Rams are throwing for 196.9 yards per game and have now turned to Baker Mayfield at quarterback after claiming the former #1 overall pick on waivers last week. In his first start, last week against the Raiders, Mayfield completed 63% of his passes for 230 yards and one touchdown and led the Rams on a final 93-yard drive to steal a win.
This Green Bay defense will be a tough test as they’re 4th in the NFL in passing yards allowed and will likely get after Mayfield since they have a blitz rate of 40.3% on passing attempts, recording 24 sacks and getting pressure on opposing QBs 30.2% of the time.
However, a lot of their strong passing numbers are propped up by how much teams run against them. Green Bay is actually just 16th in passing yards allowed per completion, 20th in QB rating allowed, and 27th in touchdown rate allowed through the air. Meanwhile, they are the 30th-ranked run defense, allowing 154.8 yards per game, so teams tend to attack them on the ground.
That could be interesting on Monday night since the Rams are a poor run offense, ranking 30th in the league by averaging 86.1 rushing yards per game. Cam Akers has moved back into the starting role and could be an important part of the game plan as Los Angeles looks to take the home crowd out of the game by sustaining long drives.
On offense, Green Bay is also not setting the world on fire, averaging 20.2 points per game. They are throwing for 220.2 yards per game, which has been a steep decline from years past and Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 24 times in 13 games.
However, Rodgers has found a security blanket of late in rookie wide receiver Christian Watson, who has 25 catches and seven touchdowns with almost all of his production coming in the last four games after recovering from injury.
The Rams’ secondary can be beaten as they rank 14th in the NFL in yards allowed per completion, 25th in QB rating allowed, and 21st in passing yards allowed per game. Since the Rams also are 4th best in the NFL in run defense, allowing just four yards per carry, it makes sense for Green Bay to drive to move the ball through the air.
That could also mean a hefty dose of running back Aaron Jones, who actually leads the team with 48 receptions on the season. He’s turned that into 328 receiving yards and four touchdowns to go along with 847 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per carry.
The Packers will also hope to get solid production from Allen Lazard (45 catches for 620 yards and five touchdowns) and tight end Robert Tonyan (45 catches for 372 yards and one touchdown) as they look to keep their season going with a win at home.
Pick:
Green Bay 23 Los Angeles 17
Player Props:
Allen Lazard OVER 48.5 receiving yards
We discussed above that Green Bay will likely need to move the ball through the air on Monday night and despite Watson’s big plays, Lazard has been the team’s more consistent receiving option. He averages 56.4 yards per game, which is more than this prop, and he has topped this total in seven of his 11 games. I like the plus odds we can get on this too.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at DraftKings (+105)
Tutu Atwell OVER 31.5 receiving yards
Somebody has to catch the ball for the Rams on Monday night, and it might as well be Atwell, who is seeing more playing time every week and played a season-high 61% of snaps in Week 14. He’s a 23-year-old former second-round pick who has the deep speed to make big plays as evidenced by his 17.4 air yards per reception. Given what we discussed with the Packers’ secondary, I think Atwell could have one big reception to get him over this total.
As of publication, you can get this at BetMGM at 25.5 receiving yards, which is great.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at Draftkings (-125)
Kyren Williams UNDER 43.5 rushing + receiving yards
I don’t quite get this line. Williams has only topped this once in his five games since being activated off the Injured Reserve, and it was in a loss to the Chiefs in which he was used heavily in the passing game. Williams has just three carries in each of the last two weeks and has now become the pass-catching back only.
The issue is that, in close games, the Rams don’t use him a lot since he has just one reception in the last two weeks combined. I expect this game to be close, which means I expect way more Akers than Williams, and I think you can hit the under here.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at FANDUEL (-121)
