NFL Week 11 Ravens vs Panthers: Preview, predictions, prop bets, more

The Baltimore Ravens look to keep pace in the AFC when they head home on Sunday to welcome the Carolina Panthers.

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Carolina Panthers (3-7) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

How to Watch:

Day: Sunday, November 20th
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

Betting Stats:

MONEYLINE: BAL (-800), CAR (+550)
SPREAD: BAL -13
OVER/UNDER: 41

Matchup:

Baltimore comes into this game feeling pretty good, having won four of their last five and set to get tight end Mark Andrews back from injury. Running back Gus Edwards also seemed to be on track to return, but it looks like that will take another week, which shouldn’t be a big deal since Kenyan Drake has filled in admirably.

Baltimore is 2nd in the NFL with 168.2 rushing yards per game, which should be a key to this game, since the Panthers are 26th in the NFL, allowing 139.2 rushing yards per game.

As usual, Lamar Jackson paces the team with 635 rushing yards on 7.4 yards per carry. However, his passing has been a bit more inconsistent this year after the team traded away Marquise Brown and then lost Rashod Bateman to a foot injury.

On the season, Jackson is completing 62.3% of his passes for 1,768 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s thrown for over 240 yards just once this year and has only one game with multiple passing touchdowns since Week 3. As a result, the Ravens are 27th in the NFL with 186.8 passing yards per game.

Jackson has been battling an illness that has limited him in practice throughout the week, but he is set to play on Sunday. The question will just be how mobile he feels like being if he’s not at 100%. That may lead to Baltimore deciding to air it out against Carolina. Mark Andrews being back from injury this week helps since he leads the team with 488 yards and five touchdowns on the season.

While Baltimore’s offense hasn’t been especially potent this season, it’s easy to see how they can win this game with their defense. Especially considering the bye week gave them more time to integrate stud linebacker Roquan Smith into their scheme after acquiring him from Chicago before the trade deadline.

The Panthers’ offense is second-to-last in the NFL with just 294.2 total yards gained per game. However, their running game has come alive a little lately, even after trading away Christian McCaffrey. D’Onta Foreman has filled in more than admirably, rushing for 389 yards on 79 carries (4.9 yards per carry) in his four games as a starter.

He could find the sledding tough against a Baltimore team that’s 3rd in the NFL with just 92 rushing yards allowed per game. However, part of that is because teams have found success passing against the Ravens. Baltimore is 28th in the NFL with 258.8 passing yards allowed per game, and inconsistent play from their secondary has been instrumental in late-game collapses against the Dolphins, Bills, and Giants.

Yet, Carolina is not really well-positioned to take advantage of that weakness. The Panthers are 28th in the NFL with 176.2 passing yards per game. They’ve also been worse with Baker Mayfield under center, and the former first-overall pick will be starting on Sunday with P.J. Walker sidelined by an ankle injury.

In six games on the season, Mayfield is completing just 56.6% of his passes for 1,117 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s also taken 15 sacks in those four games. While Walker wasn’t electric in his own right, he was taking more shots down the field and had boosted the performance of wide receiver D.J. Moore, who had his two highest yardage totals of the season with Walker under center.

Perhaps time on the sideline has helped Mayfield, but if he’s unable to consistently move the Panthers’ offense against this Ravens’ defense through the air, it’s hard to see how Carolina is going to put up enough points to win this game.

Staff Picks:

Top Player Props:

If you’re going to be betting on action besides the spread, here are three player props we like from Thursday night’s game:

While the Ravens have been successful against the run, as we mentioned above, they are still allowing 4.3 yards per carry. Most teams have just chosen to throw against them, but I don’t see Carolina doing that. If you take away the blowout against the Bengals where Carolina was down 30 in the blink of an eye, Foreman has averaged 24 carries in the three other starts. If he gets over 15 carries, I can easily him topping this.

Where to bet: -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Mark Andrews over 49.5 receiving yards

I would likely take this line if Lamar Jackson wasn’t sick, but on the off chance that Jackson doesn’t feel 100% after spending the whole week limited by this illness, I easily see a path to him running a bit less and moving the ball through the air. That basically just means Andrews with the rest of the Baltimore receiving corps totally banged up or not very good.

Where to bet: -110 at BetMGM

Kenyan Drake under 10.5 receiving yards

Lamar Jackson doesn’t dump the ball off. Drake usually gets one or two targets a game and, in my opinion, only topped this last week because Andrews was out. If Lamar is going to dump it off, he’s just gonna throw it to Andrews, but most of the time he’s scrambling or taking a bad sack, so I’ll take the under here.

Where to bet: -115 at DraftKings