The latest Siena College poll had more good news for Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani in the November general election — and some troubling early news for Gov. Kathy Hochul in her 2026 re-election campaign.
Results of the survey, released Tuesday, found that Mamdani, a democratic socialist, continues to lead the crowded mayor’s race with 44% of the vote. However, that result was gleaned from a small New York City-based 317-person slice of the poll, which overall spoke to 813 registered Democratic voters statewide between Aug. 4-7, shows.
The pollsters note that the mayor’s race results come from a New York City sample that was included as part of the statewide registered voter sample and not weighted as part of a city likely voter sample. The margin of error is +/- 6.7% and they say some of the results should be taken as anecdotal.
The poll shows Mamdani holding a nearly 20-point lead over his next closest rival, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo — 44% to 25%. Coming behind Cuomo, who is running as an independent, is Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa at 12% and independent incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 7%.
Since winning the Democratic primary in late June, Mamdani has consistently led in public polling for the November general election.
Hochul slips against Stefanik
Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Hochul’s projected lead in a potential 2026 general election match-up with GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik shrank by nine points compared to June, while her job approval and favorability numbers grew slightly over the same period.
The survey found that Hochul now leads Stekanik by 14 points (45% to 31%), a dip from the 25-point (47% to 24%) advantage she held over the North Country Congress member just two months ago.
Stekanik, a close ally of President Trump’s, has emerged as Hochul’s most likely Republican challenger, after Hudson Valley GOP Rep. Mike Lawler announced he would seek reelection to his swing seat rather than run for governor late last month. However, she has yet to officially launch her bid, indicating last month she would not make a decision until after this year’s November election.
At the same time, the poll showed Hochul’s favorability among New York voters grew by three points over the same period — from 42% to 47% in June to 42% to 44% now. Her job approval rating is also up slightly, 53% to 42%, compared to 50% to 45% two months ago.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg, in a statement, posited that Stefanik could seize on the narrowing gap as the race draws closer.
“While the Governor can trumpet her best job approval rating since March 2023, there is little doubt that Stefanik will highlight that more than a year out from a potential match-up, Hochul’s lead over Stefanik is only 14 points, 45% to 31%, down from 23 points in June, and that Hochul doesn’t hit ‘the magic 51% mark,’” Greenberg said.
The pollster further noted that both candidates have well over a majority of supporter from their respective parties — Hochul with more than two-thirds of Democrats behind her and Stefanik with roughly three-fourths of Republicans backing her. Independents now favor Stefanik (32% to 35%) after leaning toward Hochul in June.
The governor is still solidly ahead in New York City, with 55% to Stefanik’s 19%, the survey found. But Stefanik now holds a narrow lead in the city’s suburbs (39% to 41%) and the pair are neck-and-neck upstate — where Hochul, a Buffalo native, sits at 40% and Stefanik at 39%.
Stefanik has a favorability rating of 27% to 32% and 41% of voters say they do not know or have never heard of her.
“Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters – either positively or negatively,” Greenberg said. “While 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, 46% are not very or not at all familiar with Stefanik. Republicans think she has the right experience to be governor, Democrats don’t, and independents are closely divided.”
The poll also found that Hochul will likely be the Democratic nominee as she holds a commanding 35% lead over her primary oponent — Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.
