Super Bowl 57 is set with a showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs. So how should you be betting on the big game?
Well, we’ve always believed that history has a way of repeating itself, so one of the best ways to decide where to lay your hard earned money is to see what has worked out in the past. We’ll look at some of the recent trends in Super Bowl betting and see how they can help you determine what to bet on Sunday, February 12th for Super Bowl 57.
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Super Bowl 57 Betting Odds
- Moneyline: PHI (-130) KC (+110)
- Spread: Eagles +2 (-110)
- Total: 49.5 (-110)
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Line Movement
One thing many people forget to keep an eye on is how “sharps” or experts are betting on the game. An easy way to do that is to look at how the line moves in the first few days after it’s set. When the line moves, it’s a good indication that sharps are betting on a specific side. In fact, sharp bettors are 10-6 (62.5%) in the last 16 Super Bowls in which they moved totals.
Right now, that early action would seem to favor Philadelphia and the under.
Moneyline and Against the Spread History
Betting favorites entering the Super Bowl are 35-20 straight up, so there has been some history of the odds being set right. However, whatever team you believe will win the Super Bowl will also almost always cover the spread.
The Super Bowl winner is 46-7-3 against the spread in Super Bowl history, even though one of those losses was last year when Cincinnati lost the game but covered the six-point spread. Given that the spread is under a field goal, it seems highly likely that the winner of the game will also cover the spread.
Favorites are less successful against the spread than they are straight up. In Super Bowl history, the favored team is just 25-27-3 against the spread. Even more concerning for the Philadelphia Eagles is that underdogs are 15-6 against the spread in the last 21 Super Bowls and 11-4 against the spread in the last 15.
Given what we mentioned above and the fact that Philadelphia is a small 2-point favorite over Kansas City, it would seem that history suggests that if Kansas City is going to cover the spread, they are also going to win the game.
Game Totals
A lot of recent trends are pushing us towards the UNDER for this game.
For starters, the last four Super Bowls and 11 have the last 18 have gone UNDER, including the 2019 Super Bowl between the Rams and Patriots which went under by 39 points.
The odds are even more in favor of the UNDER when the total is above 50 points. In those instances, the UNDER is 9-3 and since the current total is 49.5, there is a chance this game ends up in that 50 or higher range, which would make the under even more attractive.
Regular Season Offensive Stats
Regular season scoring doesn’t seem to matter in the Super Bowl since teams that scored more points per game during the regular season are just 6-13-1 against the spread in the last 20 Super Bowl games. Kansas City led the NFL in scoring this year at 29.2 PPG, but that wouldn’t seem to give them an edge here.
Similarly, despite what you might hear from NFL commentators, running the football has also not equated to success in the Super Bowl. Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game in the regular season are just 5-13 against the spread over the last 18 Super Bowls and teams that average more yards per carry are just 6-12 against the spread. Since Philadelphia rushed for more yards per game, but the Chiefs rushed for more yards per carry, it seems neither team gets an edge here.
Similarly, passing success in the regular season appears to mean little for Super Bowl success. The team with more total passing yardage in the regular season is just 8-13 against the spread in the last 21 Super Bowls. Kansas City was the number one passing offense in the NFL this year, but that might not matter.
However, offenses that averaged fewer yards per point are just 7-13 against the spread in the last 20 Super Bowls, so this may be a factor that has some influence. In 2022, Philadelphia had a slight edge in yards per point, which seems to be a knock against Kansas City.
Regular Season Defensive Stats
The real impact could come from regular-season defensive stats.
Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have won the last seven Super Bowl games outright and are 6-1 against the spread. Seven games is a smaller sample size than we’ve been talking about above, but since Philadelphia holds the advantage here, it could be a tick in their favor.
However, teams that allowed fewer rushing yards per game have gone 5-2 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in the last seven Super Bowl games. Additionally, teams that allow fewer yards per carry are 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread, and Kansas City has the advantage in both of those metrics.
Takeaway
Sadly, of the metrics that seemed to matter historically, we split down the middle in terms of ones that favor Kansas City and ones that favor Philadelphia. However, what we can feel pretty good about the UNDER and also the same team both winning the game and covering the spread.
We’ll be back with more betting picks and insights every day until the Super Bowl, so make sure to keep checking with amNew York Sports.
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