MLB best bets: Free picks for MLB slate on August 10th

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Phillies celebrate an MLB win
Philadelphia Phillies’ Jean Segura (2) celebrates with Matt Vierling after Segura’s home run off Miami Marlins’ Braxton Garrett during the fourth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Aug. 9, 2022, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet. 

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MLB Best Bets for August 10th

MLB best bet

We went 6-2 on the night Tuesday, which has us starting the week 9-4 and feeling pretty good. Let’s see if we can keep it going on Wednesday.

We only have only one runline bet tonight, and it’s WAS +1.5 (-139). There obvious narrative is that this Nationals team is horrible without Juan Soto and Josh Bell, but they did beat the Cubs last night, so it’s not as if they’re out of their league in this series. They also have Josiah Gray on the mound today, who is an enigma but has flashed clear upside. The model has the Nationals as 0.04 run favorites, so we’ll take the 1.5 here. 

A few teams who I like straight up today are are MIL ML (-155), ATL ML (-150), and PHI ML (-127). The Brewers and Braves are really pushing our -150 cap. I usually don’t want to have to bet $150 to win $100, but are close enough, so we’ll roll with it. The Red Sox are such a hard team to figure out, but Nick Pivetta has been pitching poorly of late, and our model has the Braves favored by 1.43 total runs. The Brewers are also 0.99 run favorites over the Rays, who will throw Jeffrey Springs but have a banged up and inconsistent offense. 

The Phillies have the most advantageous odds but are also the largest favorites according to our model, which makes them one of the best bets on the board tonight. Yes, they will face Sandy Alcantara, but this Marlins offense has been horrendous. Our model has the Phillies favored by 2.07 and has the Marlins scoring only 2.32 themselves, which makes the Phillies an intriguing bet. 

Lastly, the model sees the wants us to go back to the well in TOR/BAL Over 9 (-102) and MIN/LAD Over 9 (-107), which both hit last night. We mentioned how strong the Orioles and Blue Jays offenses have been, and both Dean Kremer and Jose Berrios have been prone to a blow-outing. Same goes for Sonny Gray and Ryan Pepiot, who could have a hard time containing the offenses in Los Angeles. Our model has TOR/BAL finishing at 10.85 total runs and MIN/LAD finishing with 10.75 runs, so these both seem like best bets. 

We’re also going to take Under 8.5 in SF/SD (+100). We’re getting positive odds on this so betting $100 will get us a $100 profit, which we like to see. Both Jakob Junis and Sean Manaea have strong peripherals, so our model has this game finishing with 7.08 total runs. I’m a little nervous because San Diego could wake up at any time, but I’ll trust the model on this one. 

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Sean Manaea delivers a pitch in 2022 MLB action
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Sean Manaea works against a New York Mets batter during the seventh inning of a baseball game Wednesday, June 8, 2022, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

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